000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050249 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 UTC Fri Aug 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivette is centered near 14.8N 128.7W at 05/0300 UTC, moving W or 270 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb, and maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The low-level center appears to be on the northwest side of the small area of cold cloud tops, consistent with some west-northwesterly shear. As a result, numerous moderate to strong convection is noted mainly within 120 nm SE semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 150 nm SE and 60 nm NW semicircles. Ivette is moving toward the west and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west- northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected Friday night and Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 12N103W to 09N114W to 11N120W. The ITCZ axis stretches from 11N130W to 09N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 108W and 118W. Similar convection is near 11N111W, and from 10N to 11.5N W of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: Weak surface troughing will persist along the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. Light to moderate S winds will prevail across the north central Gulf of California the next few days. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are forecast to become variable tonight and will blow from the SE on Wed in association with an area of disturbed weather that has formed near and to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A surface trough is analyzed from 15N93W to 11N97W on the 0000 UTC surface map. Convection has diminished in association with this trough over the past few hours, but a cluster of moderate to strong convection has developed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec covering the area n of 15n between 94w and 96w. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward and merge with the remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Earl, and an area of low pressure is forecast to form near the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low moves northwestward toward the Baja California peninsula. Earl is still a heavy rainfall threat while moving over SE Mexico. It is expected to produce locally heavy rains over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Heavy rain associated with widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring ahead of Earl will shift westward through the weekend, and could produce heavy rainfall across portions of the area from Tehuantepec to Jalisco Mexico by Sunday evening. Please refer to the latest bulletins and advisories from your local weather agencies. S of 15N E of 120W: East of 100W, moderate WSW monsoonal winds are expected through Friday as Earl moves across SE Mexico and the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will produce 4-7 ft seas across the region the next few days. W of 120W: The remnants of Howard has just moved west of area, but it is still producing winds in the 20-30 kt range over the forecast waters from 22N to 27N W of 137 with seas of 8-13 ft. These marine conditions are expected to move west of area by Friday morning. Ridging extending into the region from NW of the area is maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds. Fresh to strong NE winds offshore of California will generate fresh N swell that will move into the northern waters. Seas to 8 ft will propagate southward but remain N of 30N through Sunday. $$ GR