000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040329 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivette is centered about 1050 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California near 14.6N 123.4W at 0300 UTC, moving W or 275 degrees at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure remains 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Satellite imagery continues to show NE wind shear impacting Ivette. Deep convection is still present near and to the SW of the center of Ivette, where numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is found in the SW semicircle within 120 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 121W and 126W. Ivette is still forecast to move WNW across the warm waters of the open ocean during the next 48 hours under favorable atmospheric conditions, and is expected to strengthen to hurricane intensity within 48 hours. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Post Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 21.5N 135.9W at 0300 UTC. Estimated minimum central pressure has increased to 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Howard will remain devoid of deep convection as it continues moving WNW to W over cooler waters. Seas associated with this system will shift W of 140W by Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 10N98W to 1013 mb low pressure centered near 10N107W to 08N110W to 09N114W. The ITCZ heads from 13N138W to beyond 12N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is found within 60 nm either side of a line from 15N93W to 09N85W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 12N between 104W and 114W and from 08N to 12N between 117W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: Weak surface troughing will persist along the Baja California peninsula through Saturday. Light to moderate S winds will prevail across the north and central Gulf of California the next few days. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh N winds will pulse to 25 kt overnight. Seas will build to 7-9 ft by Thu morning...then subside to 5-7 ft Thu afternoon. Heavy rain associated with widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring ahead of Earl in the western Caribbean continue to shift westward across central America and the adjacent Pacific coastal, and will shift across the Tehuantepec region and southeastern Mexico late tonight through Fri. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the NW. This ridge will support gentle to locally moderate NW winds across the open Pacific waters offshore of Baja California, with seas 4-6 ft range in mixed N and SW southern hemisphere swell. S of 15N E of 120W: East of 100W, light to moderate monsoonal winds are expected through Fri as Earl moves across central America. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring over Central America well ahead of Earl. This very active weather is expected to continue across the tropical eastern Pacific and central America during the next couple of days and will generally shift westward with Earl. Torrential rainfall and flash flooding will be possible during this time. See the latest bulletins and advisories from your local weather agencies. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will produce 4-7 ft seas across the region the next few days. W of 120W: TS Ivette has crossed to the W of 120W and Post Tropical Cyclone Howard will continue weakening and exit the forecast waters by Friday morning. See the special features section for details. Ridging extending into the region from NW of the area is maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds. Fresh to strong NE winds offshore of California will generate fresh NNE swell that will move into the northern waters. Seas to 8 ft will propagate southward but remain N of 30N at times through Sunday. $$ cam