000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Aug 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivette is centered near 14.9N 122.0W at 2100 UTC, moving WNW or 285 degrees at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure remains 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Satellite imagery indicates some wind shear from the NE. Deep convection continues near and to the SW of the center of Ivette. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is found in the SW semicircle within 120 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 120W and 125W. Ivette is forecast to continue moving WNW across the warm waters of the open ocean during the next 48 hours under favorable atmospheric conditions, and is expected to strengthen and reach hurricane intensity within 48 hours. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Howard has just become Post Tropical and is centered near 21.3N 135.2W at 2100 UTC, moving WNW or 290 degrees at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has increased to 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Howard will remain devoid of deep convection as it continues moving WNW to W over cooler waters. Seas associated with this system will shift W of 140W by Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 11N99W to 1013 mb low pressure centered near 10N107W to 10N107W to 11N114W. The ITCZ heads from 13N137W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 13N between 77W and 92W and from 07N to 14N between 103W and 112W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: Weak surface troughing will persist along the Baja California peninsula through Saturday. Light to moderate S winds will prevail across the north central Gulf of California the next few days. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh N winds will pulse to 25 kt overnight. Seas will build to 7-9 ft by Thu morning...then subside to 5-7 ft Thu afternoon. Heavy rain associated with widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring ahead of Earl in the western Caribbean will shift westward across central America into the Tehuantepec region and southern Mexico Thu and Fri. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the NW. This ridge will support gentle to locally moderate NW winds across the open Pacific waters offshore of Baja California, with seas 4-6 ft range in mixed N and SW southern hemisphere swell. S of 15N E of 120W: East of 100W, light to moderate monsoonal winds are expected through Fri as Earl moves across central America. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring over Central America well ahead of Earl. This very active weather is expected to continue across the tropical eastern Pacific and central America during the next couple of days and will generally shift westward with Earl. Torrential rainfall and flash flooding will be possible during this time. See the latest bulletins and advisories from your local weather agencies. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will produce 4-7 ft seas across the region the next few days. W of 120W: TS Ivette has crossed to the W of 120W and TS Howard will continue weakening and exit the forecast waters by Friday morning. See the special features section for details. Ridging extending into the region from NW of the area is maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds. Fresh to strong NE winds offshore of California will generate fresh NNE swell that will move into the northern waters. Seas to 8 ft will propagate southward toward 30N at times through Fri. $$ cam