000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031016 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Aug 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Howard continues to weaken this morning as it moves over cooler waters. At 0900 UTC, Howard was centered near 20.3N 132.6W or about 1275 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW or 300 degrees at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure was 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds have diminished to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Most of the convection associated with Howard remains across the N semicircle of the center, where scattered weak to moderate convection was within 180 nm of the center. Howard is forecast to continue moving WNW during the next few days and gradually weaken as it exits the area to the west. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Ivette was centered near 14.2N 119.2W or about 745 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW or 285 degrees at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure was 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are now 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Ivette continues to become better organized, with scattered moderate to strong convection occurring within 150 nm across the northwest semicircle and 210 nm across the southwest quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection was elsewhere to the southeast from 09N to 12N between 115W and 117W. Ivette is forecast to continue moving W to WNW across the open eastern tropical Pacific Ocean during the next 48 hours, and across warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions. Ivette is expected to gradually strengthen and reach hurricane strength within 48 hours. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09N93W to 09N106W to 12N109W. The ITCZ extends from 12.5N133W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection noted within 240 nm north and 180 nm south of the trough east of 92W. Scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 120 nm either side of trough between 101W and 109W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: In the Gulf of California, weak surface troughing will persist along the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Light to moderate S winds will generally continue across the north and central Gulf for the next few days, while light and variable winds will prevail across the southern Gulf in response to afternoon sea breezes and nocturnal offshore flow across Sinaloa, Mexico. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh N winds will continue across the area through Thu, and pulse to strong levels during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will build to 7-9 ft early each morning...then subside to 5-7 ft each afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms occurring well ahead of Tropical Storm Earl in the NW Caribbean Sea will shift westward across central America and across the Tehuantepec region and southern Mexico Thu and Fri. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the NW. This ridge will support gentle to locally moderate NW winds across the open Pacific waters offshore of Baja California. Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 ft range in mixed N and SW southern hemisphere swell. S of 15N E of 120W: Newly upgraded T.S. Ivette is moving W-NW across the forecast waters and will move west of 120W by afternoon. See the special features section for details. East of 100W, light to moderate monsoonal winds are expected through thu as Tropical Storm Earl moves across the NW Caribbean Sea and across central America. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring across large portions of central America this morning, well ahead of Earl. This very active weather is expected to continue across the tropical eastern Pacific and central America during the next couple of days and will generally shift westward with and ahead of Earl. Torrential rainfall and resultant flash flooding will be possible during this time. See the latest bulletins and advisories from your local weather agencies. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will produce seas of 4-7 ft for the next several days. W of 120W: T. S. Howard is moving across the forecast waters. See the special features section for details. Ridging extending into the region from NW of the area is generally maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds. Fresh to strong NE winds offshore of California will generate fresh NNE swell that will move into the northern waters. Seas to 8 ft will periodically propagate southward toward 30N through Friday, but are not expected to cross to the S of 30N. $$ Stripling