000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022115
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1910 UTC Tue Aug 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
Tropical Storm Howard is reaching cooler waters, and is expected
to begin weakening tonight and Wed. At 02/2100 UTC, Howard was
centered near 19.3N 130.2W or about 1330 nm W of the southern tip
of Baja California, moving WNW or 295 degrees at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure remains 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds
are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Most of the convection associated
with howard is displaced to the N of the center. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the NW
semicircle within 60 nm. Scattered moderate convection is present
elsewhere from 18N to 23N between 126W and 131W. Howard is
forecast to continue moving WNW during the next several days and
gradually weaken. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression 10-E has just formed in the eastern Pacific
to the SW of Mexico. At 02/2100 UTC, T.D. 10-E was centered near
13.3N 115.7W or about 765 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja
California, moving WNW or 295 degrees at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure remains 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. T.D. 10-E continues to become better
organized and could become a tropical storm on Wednesday.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
11N to 18N between 112W and 118W. T.D. 10-E is forecast to
continue moving W to WNW into the open eastern Pacific Ocean
during the next 48 hours as it strengthens. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N90W to 12N110W to
10N123W, them resumes at 13N129W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of a
line from 05N79W to 09N99W to 14N107W. Similar convection can be
found from 06N to 13N between 119W and 139W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

In the Gulf of California, weak surface troughing will linger
along the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Light to
moderate S winds will continue across the north and central
Gulf, while light and variable winds will prevail across the
southern Gulf in response to afternoon sea breezes and nocturnal
offshore flow across Sinaloa, Mexico.

Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh N winds will continue
across the area through Thu, and pulse to strong levels during the
overnight and early morning hours. Seas will build to 7-9 ft early
each morning...then subside to 5-7 ft each afternoon.

Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the
NW. This ridge will support gentle to locally moderate NW winds
across the open Pacific waters offshore of Baja California. Seas
will remain in the 4 to 6 ft range in mixed N and SW southern
hemisphere swell.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

T. D. 10-E is moving across the forecast waters. See the special
features section for details.

Across the Gulf of Papagayo region, Light to moderate winds are
expected through mid-week as Tropical Storm Earl moves through the
western Caribbean Sea. This will produce a broad and generally
light to moderate NW to W wind flow across the area E of 100W
through the end of the week.

Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will produce seas below 8
ft for the next several days.

W of 120W:

T. S. Howard is moving across the forecast waters. See the special
features section for details. Ridging extending into the region
from NW of the area is generally maintaining moderate to
occasionally fresh NE to E winds. Fresh to strong NE winds
offshore of California will generate fresh NNE swell that will
move into the northern waters. Seas to 8 ft will periodically
propagate southward toward 30N through Friday, but are not
expected to cross to the S of 30N.

$$
cam