000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1304 UTC Tue Aug 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Howard is reaching cooler waters, and is expected to begin weakening tonight and Wed. At 02/1500 UTC...it is centered near 18.8N 128.9W or about 1080 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW or 295 degrees at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure remains 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. The low level center of Howard is located just inside the southern edge of a ragged central dense overcast. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 18N to 22N between 125W and 130W. Howard is forecast to continue moving in a general west- northwestward motion for the next 48 hours or so and gradually weaken. It is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low west of area in about 72 hours. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave is moving westward near 15 kt across the tropical eastern Pacific. A broad low pres system has developed along the wave axis near 12.5N113.5W. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N80W to 10N90W to 09N100W to 11.5N110W TO 10N120W...them resumes at 12N129W to beyond 10N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 05N east of 79W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07.5N between 79W AND 88W. Similar convection can be found within 120 NM south of trough between 116W and 119W...and within 60 NM south of trough between 129W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: In the Gulf of California, weak surface troughing will linger along the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Light to moderate S winds will continue across the north and central Gulf, while light and variable winds will prevail across the southern Gulf in response to afternoon sea breezes and nocturnal offshore flow across Sinaloa, Mexico. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec...fresh N winds will continue across the area through Thu, and pulse to strong levels during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will build to 7-9 ft early each morning...then subside to 5-7 ft each afternoon. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the NW. This ridge will support gentle to locally moderate NW winds across the open Pacific waters offshore of Baja California. Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 ft range in mixed N and SW southern hemisphere swell. S of 15N E of 120W: Across the Gulf of Papagayo region...moderate to fresh E winds will continue through this afternoon. Weaker winds are then expected through mid-week as a very strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean approaches the western Caribbean Sea. This will produce a broad and generally light to moderate NW to W wind flow across the area E of 100W into the end of the week. Long-period...cross-equatorial SW swell producing seas below 8 ft will continue through most of the week. W of 120W: Tropical Storm Howard is moving across the forecast waters. Please, see special feature section for details. Ridging extending into the region from NW of the area is generally maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds. Fresh to strong NE winds offshore of California will generate fresh N- NE swell that will move into the northern waters. Seas to 8 ft will periodically propagate southward toward 30N through Friday, but are not expected to move S of 30N through Friday. $$ GR