000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021012
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Aug 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 18.3N 127.6W at 0900
UTC or about 1030 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California
moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure remains
999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Convection near Howard has improved overnight, with scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection found within 180 nm
across the northeast and 30 nm across the southwest semicircles.
Howard is expected to continue moving west-northwest over the
next couple of day and move over gradually cooler waters, and
ingest drier more stable air. A gradual weakening trend is
expected with Howard likely to become a post-tropical remnant
low, with gale force winds, by early Thu morning. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
for more details.

A tropical wave is moving westward near 15 kt across the
tropical eastern Pacific near 113W this morning, and continues
to produce a broad area of moderate to strong convection from
07.5N to 16.5N between 109W and 115W. Overnight scatterometer
data showed a weak and elongated low pressure area near
11.5n112.5w along the wave. As the wave and weak low move
westward during the next few days, atmospheric conditions are
expected to become more favorable for improved organization.
Winds across the northern semicircle of the low area expected to
increase to 20-25 kt during the next 24 hours and possibly to 20-
30 kt within 48 hours. This system has a medium chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, and a
high chance through 5 days as it moves west-northwestward.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The monsoon trough extends from low pres near 07N76W to 10N86W
to 07.5N95W to low pres near 11.5N112.5W to 09N122W. The ITCZ
extends from south of Tropical Storm Howard near 13N126W to
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 120 nm north and 180 nm south of the trough east of 85W,
and within 120 nm north and 150 nm south of the trough between
95W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 60 nm north and 120 nm south of the ITCZ between
126W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

In the Gulf of California, weak surface troughing will linger
along the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Light to
moderate S winds will continue across the north and central
Gulf, while light and variable winds will prevail across the
southern Gulf in response to afternoon sea breezes and nocturnal
offshore flow across Sinaloa, Mexico.

Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec...fresh N winds will continue
across the area through Thu, and pulse to strong levels during
the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will build to 7-9 ft
early each morning...then subside to 5-7 ft each afternoon.

Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the
NW. This ridging will support mainly gentle W to NW winds across
the open Pacific waters offshore of Baja California. Wind will
occasionally increase to moderate just offshore of the Baja
California peninsula each afternoon and evening. Seas will
remain in the 4 to 6 ft range in mixed N and SW southern
hemisphere swell.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

Across the Gulf of Papagayo region...moderate to fresh E winds
will continue through this afternoon before winds and seas
subside drainage flow will decrease tonight. Weaker winds are
then expected through mid-week as the monsoon trough drifts
northward of 10N as the very strong tropical wave in the central
Caribbean approaches the western Caribbean Sea.
This will produce a broad and generally light to moderate NW to
W wind flow across the area E of 100W into the end of the week.

Long-period...cross-equatorial SW swell producing seas of 4 to 7
ft will continue through most of the week.

W of 120W:

Ridging extending into the region from NW of the area is generally
maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds. Fresh
to strong NE winds offshore of California will generate fresh N-
NE swell that will move into the northern waters. Seas to 8 ft
will periodically propagate southward toward 30N through Friday,
but are not expected to move S of 30N through Friday.

$$
Stripling