000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020330
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 UTC Tue Aug 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 17.7N 126.4W at 02/0300
UTC or about 1125 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California
moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is found in the NE semicircle
within 90 nm. Scattered moderate convection is occurring elsewhere
from 13N to 19N between 122W and 127W. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 09N111W to 15N110W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with a relatively short wavelength 700 mb
trough noted on global model analyses between 110W and 115W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with this
system is present from 06N to 16N between 109W and 115W. The wave
and associated energy is expected to continue generally moving WNW
through Friday...possibly becoming slightly better organized on
Thursday as the gradient winds increase on the northern periphery
of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from 10N86W to 08N94W to 12N107W to
09N116W to 10N119W...then resumes S of T.S. Howard near 11N127W
to 10N137W. The ITCZ continues from 10N137W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from 06N to
14N between 94W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
06N to 10N between 106W and 110W and along and up to 180 nm S of
the Monsoon Trough axis between 124W to 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

In the Gulf of California...weak surface troughing will linger
along the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Light to
moderate S winds will continue across the northern Gulf...while
light and variable winds will prevail across the southern Gulf in
response to afternoon sea breezes and nocturnal offshore flow
across Sinaloa, Mexico.

Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec...fresh N flow will pulse to fresh
to strong levels during the overnight and early morning hours
through Thursday morning. Seas will build to 7-9 ft early each
morning...then subside to 5-7 ft each afternoon.

Elsewhere...a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the
NW. This ridging will support mainly gentle W to NW winds across
the open Pacific waters. Wind speeds will occasionally increase to
moderate just offshore of the Baja California peninsula. Seas will
remain in the 4 to 6 ft range in mixed N and SW southern
hemisphere swell.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

Across the Gulf of Papagayo region...moderate to fresh E drainage
flow will decrease tonight. Seas around 7 ft this evening will
subside to between 5 and 6 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. Weaker winds
are then expected through mid-week as the monsoon trough drifts
slightly northward and a very strong tropical wave with the
potential to develop into a tropical storm approaches the western
Caribbean Sea. Otherwise...light to moderate winds are anticipated
on either side of the Monsoon Trough axis.

Long-period...cross-equatorial SW swell producing seas of 4 to 7
ft will continue through most of the week.

W of 120W:

Ridging extending into the region from NW of the area is generally
maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds. Fresh
to strong NE winds offshore of California will generate fresh
NNW swell that will move into the northern waters. Seas to 8 ft
will periodically propagate southward toward 30N through Friday,
but 8 ft seas are not expected S of 30N through Friday.

$$
cam