000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2032 UTC Mon Aug 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 17.3N 125.3W at 01/2100 UTC or about 1075 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is found in the SE semicircle within 90 nm. Scattered moderate convection is occurring elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 121W and 126W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 08N110W to 16N107W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with a relatively short wavelength 700 mb trough noted on global model analyses between 105W and 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with this system is present within 60 nm of a line from 11N113W to 17N106W. The wave and associated energy is expected to continue generally moving WNW through FRI...possibly becoming slightly better organized on THU as the gradient winds increase on the northern periphery of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 10N85W to 08N94W to 12N107W to 09N114W to 11N118W...then resumes SW of T.S. Howard near 11N125W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from 06N to 14N between 94W and 100W...from 05N to 09N between 102W and 108W and from 06N to 12N between 124W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: In the Gulf of California...weak surface troughing will linger along the Baja California peninsula through FRI. Light to moderate S winds will continue across the northern Gulf...while light and variable winds will prevail across the southern Gulf in response to afternoon sea breezes and nocturnal offshore flow across Sinaloa, Mexico. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec...fresh N flow will pulse to fresh to strong levels during the overnight and early morning hours through Thursday morning. Seas will build to 7-9 ft by early each morning...then subside to 5-7 ft each afternoon. Elsewhere...a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the NW. This ridging will support mainly gentle W to NW flow across the open Pacific waters. Wind speeds will occasionally increase to moderate just offshore of the Baja California peninsula. Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 ft range in mixed N and SW southern hemisphere swell. S of 15N E of 120W: Across the Gulf of Papagayo region...moderate to fresh E drainage flow is expected through tonight. This will maintain seas to 7 ft this afternoon and early evening. Weaker winds are then expected through mid-week as the monsoon trough drifts slightly northward and a very strong tropical wave with the potential to develop into a tropical storm approaches the western Caribbean Sea. Otherwise... light to moderate winds are anticipated on either side of the Monsoon Trough axis. Long-period...cross-equatorial SW swell producing seas of 4 to 7 ft will continue through most of the week. W of 120W: Ridging extending into the region from NW of the area is generally maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds. Fresh to strong NE winds offshore of California will generate fresh NNW swell that will move into the northern waters. Seas to 8 ft have propagated as far S as 30N...but will begin retreating northward tonight. $$ cam