000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011524 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1410 UTC Mon Aug 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 16.7N 123.6W at 01/1500 UTC or about 855 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W-NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 18N between 119W and 126W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 08N110W to 15N109W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with a relative short wavelength 700 mb trough noted on global model analyses between 105W and 112W. Furthermore...global model data also indicates a 850 mb relative vorticity maximum embedded within the Monsoon Trough in the vicinity of 09N110W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 11N-18N between 104W-111W. The wave and associated energy is expected to continue moving westward through Tuesday night...then west-northwestward through Friday...possibly becoming better organized slightly on Thursday as the gradient winds increase on the northern periphery of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N79W to 08N85W to 07N92W to 10N102W to 08N112W to 09N116w...then resumes W of T.S. Howard near 12N129W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 77W and 81W...and from 05N to 12N between 111W and 118W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: In the Gulf of California...weak surface troughing will linger along the Baja California peninsula for the next several days. Light to moderate southerly flow will prevail across the northern Gulf...while light and variable flow will prevail across the southern Gulf in response to afternoon seabreezes and nocturnal offshore flow across Sinaloa, Mexico. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec...fresh northerly flow is expected to prevail for the next few days...pulsing to fresh to strong breeze levels during the overnight and early morning hours through Thursday morning. Seas will build to 7-9 ft by early each morning...then subside to 5-7 ft each afternoon. Elsewhere...a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the northwest. This ridging will support mainly gentle west to northwest flow across the open Pacific waters...and will occasionally increase to moderate just offshore of the Baja California peninsula. Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 ft range in N and SW southern hemispheric swell. S of 15N E of 120W: Across the Gulf of Papagayo region...moderate to fresh easterly drainage flow is expected through tonight and will maintain seas to 7 ft this afternoon and early evening. Weaker winds are expected through mid-week as the monsoon trough drifts slightly northward and a very strong tropical wave or potentially a tropical storm approaches the western Caribbean Sea. Otherwise... light to moderate flow is anticipated on either side of the Monsoon Trough axis. Long-period...cross-equatorial southwesterly swell producing seas of 4 to 7 ft will linger through most of the week. W of 120W: Ridging extending from northwest of the area is influencing this region with generally moderate to occasional fresh NE to E winds. Fresh to strong northerly winds offshore of California will generate fresh north-northeast swell moving into the northern waters. Seas of 8 ft have propagated down to 30N and will persist through tonight before retreating northward on Tuesday. $$ HUFFMAN