000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011000
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Aug 01 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 16.1N
122.9W at 090 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are assumed to have built to
9-12 ft within 90 nm across the northeast quadrant of Howard.
Convection has increased and appears better organized overnight.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is
within 120 nm across the northeast and 150 nm across the
southwest semicircles. Howard will continue to move west-
northwest during the next 2-3 days, and has a brief opportunity
for modest intensification today through late Tuesday before it
will move over cooler waters. After that time Howard will begin
to weaken and veer more northwestward, and become a post-
tropical remnant low on Thursday as it approaches 140W. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 108W is moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Overnight scatterometer data suggested a weak low pressure
center with the wave and embedded along the monsoon trough near
08.5N108W but may be a transient feature. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is present from 06.5N to 13N between 105W and
116W, while widely scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted elsewhere from 13N to 19N between 104W and 109W. Computer
models suggest that this wave could become better organized by
Thursday as it continues moving westward.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure near 07.5N74W to
10N86W to 07.5N95W to 11N116W, where it has separated from
Howard, then resumes again from 13N125W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm north and
120 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 96W, and within 180
nm south of the trough between 125W and 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

In the Gulf of California, weak surface troughing will linger
along the Baja California peninsula for the next several days.
Light to moderate southerly flow will prevail across the
northern Gulf, while light and variable flow will prevail across
the southern Gulf in response to afternoon seabreezes and
nocturnal offshore flow across Sinaloa, Mexico.

Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh northerly flow is
expectedto prevail for the next few days, and pulse to fresh to
strong during the overnight and early morning hours, through
Thursday morning. Seas will build to 7-9 ft by early each
morning, then subside to 5-7 ft each afternoon.

Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the
northwest. This ridging will support mainly gentle west to
northwest flow across the open Pacific waters, and will
occasionally increase to moderate just offshore of the Baja
California peninsula. Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 ft range
in north and southwest southern hemispheric swell.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

Across the Gulf of Papagayo region, moderate to fresh easterly
drainage flow is expected through Tuesday and will increase
during the overnight hours, helping to build fresh seas to near
8 ft. Weaker winds are expected through mid-week as the monsoon
trough drifts slightly northward and a very strong tropical wave
or potentially tropical storm approaches the western Caribbean.
Otherwise, light to moderate flow is anticipated on either side
of the monsoon trough.

Long-period, cross-equatorial southwesterly swell producing seas
of 4 to 7 ft will linger through most of the week.

W of 120W:

Ridging extending from northwest of the area is partially
disrupted by the remnant trough of former tropical cyclone
Frank, currently along 135W.

Fresh to strong northerly winds offshore of California will
generate fresh north-northeast swell moving into the northern
waters. Seas of 8 ft have propagated down to 29N early this
morning and will only persist for 24 hours before fading. 

$$
Stripling