000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010244
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Aug 01 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Depression Nine-E centered near 15.8N 122.0W at 0300
UTC Aug 01 or 785 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt
with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 120 nm in the southeast and 45 nm in the northeast
semicircles of the depression. Associated seas are 8 to 11 ft.
The depression is forecast to continue to move west-northwest
today while strengthening to a tropical storm early Mon, and
then turn more northwesterly. The system is forecast to move
west of 140W by early Thursday while weakening and becoming a
post-tropical/remnant low. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 107W from 05N to 14N is moving west at 10
to 15 kt. A 1008 mb area of low pressure trails the wave and is
located near 12N104W. Scattered moderate to strong convection in
association with both features is from 10N to 12N between 106W
and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted elsewhere from 07N to 13N between 101W and 111W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 08N93W to 1009mb
low pressure near 12N104W and trails off to 10N113W. Monsoon
trough extends from 11N127W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 130W and 135W. Scattered moderate
convection was noted in an area from 04N to 07N between 89W and
96W.  

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

In the Gulf of California, weak surface troughing will linger
along the Baja California peninsula for the next several days.
Light to moderate southerly flow will prevail across the northern
Gulf, with northerly flow across the southern Gulf.

Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, nocturnal northerly flow will
pulse to fresh to strong during the overnight and early morning
hours starting late tonight, and occurring each night through
Thursday morning. Seas will build to up to 8 to 10 ft by early
Monday.

Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the
northwest. This ridging will support mainly gentle west to
northwest flow across the open Pacific waters, occasionally
pulsing to moderate just offshore of the Baja California
peninsula. Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 ft range.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

Across the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh easterly drainage flow is
expected through Monday during the overnight hours helping to
build fresh seas to 9 ft. Weaker winds are expected through mid-
week as the monsoon trough drifts slightly northward and a
strong tropical wave approaches the western Caribbean.
Otherwise, light to moderate flow is anticipated on either side
of the monsoon trough.

Long-period, cross-equatorial southwesterly swell producing seas
of 4 to 7 ft will linger through most of the week.

W of 120W:

Ridging extending from northwest of the area is partially
disrupted by the remnant trough of former tropical cyclone
Frank, currently along 133W.

Fresh to strong northerly winds offshore of California will
generate fresh northerly swells. Seas of 8 ft will propagate
down to 29N early Monday and only persist for 24 hours. 

$$
COBB