000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310950
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A broad low pressure center remains embedded along the monsoon
trough near 14N119W with an estimated minimum central pressure
of 1007 mb, moving west-northwest at around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection was noted within 180 nm across
the northeast and 210 nm across the southwest semicircles.
Recent ASCAT data indicates S to SW winds of 20 to 25 kt are
occurring within 270 nm across the SE semicircle of the low,
where seas were 8 to 9 ft, while maximum winds to 20 kt were
indicated elsewhere across the northwest semicircle. Convection
has increased near the low center in the past several hours and
this system appears to be gaining improved organization.
Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for further
development of this low over the next few days, and it has a
high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours. For more information on this feature, see the latest High
Seas Forecasts issued under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 102W northward of 08N and is moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted east of the wave axis, from 10N to the Mexican coast
between 96W and 103W. As this wave continues to shift westward
over the next few days, computer models suggest a broad and weak
low pressure center will develop with it along the monsoon
trough, which will help in focusing convection.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 09N86W to
06.5N93W to low pres near 14N119W to 10N140W. Widely scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm south
of the monsoon trough between 86W and 100W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the trough 
between 109W and 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

In the Gulf of California, surface troughing will linger along
the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. Moderate to
fresh south to southeasterly flow will prevail in the central and
northern Gulf on the east side of this troughing, with light and
variable winds across the southern Gulf. Winds in the central
and northern Gulf will diminish late today as the pressure
gradient relaxes.

Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, nocturnal northerly flow
increased to fresh winds in the immediate Gulf overnight. Fresh
to strong northerly flow is expected again late tonight into
early Monday, and then again late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. Seas will build to 8 ft overnight as the wind
freshens. 

Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends into the area from the
northwest, partially disrupted by the remnant circulation of
Frank located well to the west of 102W. This ridging will
support mainly gentle west to northwest flow across the open
Pacific waters, occasionally pulsing to moderate just offshore
of the Baja California peninsula. Seas will remain in the 4 to 6
ft range.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

Across the Gulf of Papagayo, strong easterly drainage flow
around midnight has diminished slightly during the past couple
of hours and will diminish further to 15 to 20 kt by late
afternoon. Another pulse of fresh to strong flow is expected
late tonight into early Monday, and then again late Monday night
into early Tuesday. Weaker winds are expected through the middle
of next week as the monsoon trough drifts slightly northward.
Otherwise, light to moderate flow is anticipated on either side of
the monsoon trough.

Long-period cross-equatorial southwesterly swell producing seas
of 6 to 8 ft, will gradually decay across the tropical waters
through tonight and then fade further through Tuesday. 

W of 120W:

Ridging extending from northwest of the area is disrupted by the
remnant 1013 mb circulation of Frank, currently near 22.5N129W.
This low remnant will become a trough later today or tonight.

Fresh to strong northerly winds offshore of California will
generate fresh northerly swells. Seas of 8 ft will propagate
down to 29N by late tonight into early Monday, decaying to less
than 8 ft by the middle of the week.

$$
Stripling