000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292143 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12.5N114W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1009 mb, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection was noted within 240 nm of the broad center. There have been no recent scatterometer passes over the low, however, winds are likely still 20 kt or less with seas also less than 8 ft. Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and this low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 10N119W to 17N121W and is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is limited convection in the vicinity of the tropical wave. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 08N100W to low pressure near 12.5N114W to 11N123W. The ITCZ axis extends from 11N123W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection within 180 nm either side of the axis between 90W and 105W...and within 60-90 nm either side of the axis between 129W and 133W. Also, scattered moderate but weakening convection is from 03N to 07N east of 85W, just south of the Gulf of Panama. This convection developed last night over western Colombia before propagating offshore. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: In the Gulf of California, surface troughing will linger along the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh southeasterly flow will prevail in the central and northern Gulf on the east side of this troughing, with light and variable winds across the southern Gulf. Winds in the central and northern Gulf will diminish late in the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, nocturnal northerly flow will pulse to fresh through Sunday, then will increase to fresh to strong Monday through Wednesday. Elsewhere, A weak surface ridge extends into the area from the northwest, partially disrupted by the remnant circulation of Frank located well to the west. This ridging will support mainly gentle west to northwest flow across the open Pacific waters, occasionally pulsing to moderate just offshore of the Baja California peninsula. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft. S of 15N E of 120W: In the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal drainage flow will pulse to fresh levels tonight into early Saturday, then will increase to fresh to strong late Saturday night into early Sunday. Weaker winds are expected through the middle of next week as the monsoon trough drifts slightly northward. Otherwise, light to moderate flow is anticipated on either side of the monsoon trough. Long-period cross-equatorial southwesterly swell with seas of 6 to 9 ft, will gradually decay through the weekend. Low pressure is expected to develop near 09N100W on Sat with fresh winds on the southeast side, combined with the southwesterly swell is supporting combined seas of 8 ft. Expect these seas to linger on the southeast side of the low as it moves to the west around 10 to 15 kt Sat into Sun. W of 120W: Ridging extending from northwest of the area is disrupted by the remnant circulations of Frank and Georgette. The remnant low of Frank is near 24N126W with a minimum central pressure of 1011 mb with associated winds now 20 kt or less. Lingering combined seas to 8 ft on the western side of the low will decay to less than 8 ft by early Saturday. The remnant of Georgette is has degenerated into an open trough. Remnant seas are less than 8 ft. Meanwhile, northwest swells of 8 to 9 ft in the far northwest corner of the area will subside by tonight with a new set of northerly swell seeping south of 30N Sunday night through the early part of next week. $$ COBB