000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 27 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 22.7N 120.8W, or about 695 miles w of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, at 1500 UTC Jul 27, moving wnw, or 290 degrees at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds have diminished to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 996 mb. Currently, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 45 nm either side of a line from 22N120W to 25N122W. Frank is expected to weaken to a remnant low press in 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Georgette weakened to a Tropical Depression at 1200 UTC Jul 21. At 1500 UTC, the remnant low of Georgette was near 19.5N 129.7W...or about 1295 miles w of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The low is moving wnw, or 300 deg at 8 kt. The maximum sustained winds have diminished to 30 kt, with gusts to 40 kt near the center. The estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 1007 mb. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm se, and within 90 nm nw of the center. Scattered moderate convection is observed well nw of the center within 60 nm of 23N135W. The remnant low of Georgette is expected to continue to weaken, and should dissipate within 72 hours. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Also refer to the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL LOW... A tropical wave is analyzed from 10N to 18N along 107.5W, and has been moving W at about 10 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from 10-15N within 120 nm either side of the wave axis. Expect this tropical wave to lose identity over the next day or so. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm over the n semicircle, and within 210 nm over the s semicircle of a 1009 mb low pressure center embedded in the monsoon trough near 09N105W. This low has a good chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends nw from the pacific coast of Colombia at 08N78W to 11N93W, then turns sw through an embedded 1009 mb low pres at 09N105W, then turns nw to 10N113W where it loses identity. The ITCZ forms sw of the Georgette near 13N138W and continues w to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed s of Panama, to the e of a line from 03N79W to 08N82W to the pacific coast of Colombia. Similar convection is noted along the monsoon trough within 120 nm of 09N97W, within 180 nm either side of a line from 09N108W to 10N118W to 07N128W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: Tropical storm force winds associated with tropical cyclone Frank will soon move west of 120W, and associated seas of 8 ft or greater will shift w of 120W early tonight. See special features above additional information on Frank. A west to east orientated surface ridge will build from 21N120W to 15N106W on Thu in the wake of tropical cyclone Frank. The weak gradient northeast of the ridge will support light to gentle nw winds through the upcoming weekend, with seas of 4-6 ft. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula, and the northern Gulf of California this week, supporting light and variable winds across the Gulf of California waters through early Fri. A gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected to begin late Fri, and will persist through early Sat night across the gulf waters. Moderate northerly flow is expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Thu night into the early daylight hours on Fri, and then again late Fri night into Sat morning with seas building to about 6 ft. Model guidance is suggesting a slightly stronger drainage flow on Mon night into Tue morning with fresh to locally strong n-ne winds, and seas building to 8 ft. S of 15N e of 120W: See section on tropical wave and a surface low. Fresh to locally strong ne-e winds are expected across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours tonight, then guidance is hinting at moderate to locally fresh easterly drainage flow on Thu night as a weak surface low develops near 09N91W. The low should move westward through the upcoming weekend. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell, in the form of combined seas of 6-8 ft, is forecast to propagate n across the equator between 100-115W on Thu, and reach along 08N between 90-115W by late Fri, then begin to subside. Combined seas are forecast to less than 8 ft on Sat night. W of 120W: See special features above for information on the remnants of Georgette and Tropical Storm Frank that will pass westward through the northern portion of this discussion area into this upcoming weekend. Combined seas of 6-9 ft, primarily due to mixing swell, are expected to surround the large seas near the cyclone, and cover the waters elsewhere to the n of 12N through the upcoming weekend. $$ Nelson