000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270242 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 27 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Frank is centered near 22.0N 118.7W, or about 565 miles...910 km WSW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, at 0300 UTC, moving slowly WNW, or 290 degrees at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure has dropped to 979 mb. Currently, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 to 75 nm of the center with the convection becoming symmetric. An eye has appeared intermittently over the past several hours. Frank has likely peaked in strength, and is forecast to begin a weakening trend within the next 12 to 24 hours. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 18.8N 128.7W, or about 1245 miles...2005 km WSW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, at 0300 UTC, and is now begun drifting to the north-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are down to 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is up to 1001 mb. The low level center is now exposed with deep convection at a minimum and only flaring up within 45 nm of the center in the NW semicircle in a few bursts. Georgette is expected to weaken over cooler waters and overall unfavorable environment and should become a remnant low within 24 hours. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Also refer to the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 09N along 105W, and has been moving W at about 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 10-15N within 120 to 180 nm either side of the wave axis. Expect this tropical wave to lose identity over the next day or so. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends WSW from the pacific coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N92W, then along 10N105W to 10N120W. The ITCZ has become diffuse west of 120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted within 90-120 NM S of the monsoon trough between 97W and 106W...and within 90 NM S of the trough axis between 113W and 122W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: Tropical storm force winds associated with Hurricane Frank will move west of 120W on on Wed, and associated seas of 8 ft or greater will shift w of 120W by Wed night. See special features above additional information on Frank. A west to east orientated surface ridge will build from 21N120W to 15N106W in the wake of tropical cyclone Frank. The weak gradient northeast of the ridge will support light to gentle nw winds through the upcoming weekend, with seas of 4-6 ft. A NNW to SSE orientated trough will meander east over the Baja California Peninsula, and the northern Gulf of California this week, supporting light and variable winds across the Gulf of California waters through Fri. A gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected to begin on Fri night, and will persist through Sat across the waters. Moderate northerly flow expected late Thu night into the early daylight hours on Fri, and then again late Fri night into Sat morning with seas building to about 6 ft. Model guidance is suggesting a slightly stronger drainage flow on Sat night into Sun morning, with seas building to 8 ft. S of 15N E of 120W: See section on tropical wave. Moderate easterly winds are expected across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours tonight and on Wed night, then guidance is hinting at fresh easterly drainage flow on Thu night as a surface low develops near 10N91W. The low should move westward through the upcoming weekend, with increasing chance of tropical cyclone formation later in the week. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell, in the formed of combined seas of 6-8 ft, is forecast to propagate n across the equator between 100-115W on Thu, and reach along 08N between 90-115W on Sat before beginning to subside. Combined seas are forecast to less than 8 ft on Sun. W of 120W: See special features above for information on tropical cyclones Georgette and Frank that will pass westward through the northern portion of this discussion area through this upcoming weekend. Combined seas of 6-9 ft, primarily due to mixing swell, are expected to surround the large seas near the cyclone, and cover the waters elsewhere to the N of 12N through the upcoming weekend. $$ Cobb