000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252210 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Georgette is centered at 18.0N 127.9W at 2100 UTC, moving northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is at 969 mb. The eye has filled in this afternoon and cloud top temperatures are a little warmer indicating Georgette has continued to weaken. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is present within 120 nm across the north and 45 nm across the south semicircle. Georgette will continue weaken during the next few days as it moves northwest over cooler water, eventually becoming a post tropical low on Thursday. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 20.6N 114.4W at 2100 UTC, or about 285 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank is moving west-northwest, or 285 degrees at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds have diminished to 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Widely scattered moderate convection is present within 45 nm across the nw semicircle while scattered moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm across the southeast semicircle. This pattern of convection reflects the northwest shear continuing to impact Frank. Frank will continue to move west-northwest and is not expected to change much in intensity through Tuesday before starting to weaken by Tuesday night then move northwest before becoming a post-tropical remnant low Thursday. Large south swell from Frank continues to impact the south and central coasts of Baja California, generating rough and dangerous surf along the local regional coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave N of 09 along 99W is triggering widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection from 06N to 15N between 92W and 102W. This wave will shift to the west of the Tehuantepec region and the adjacent near and offshore coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N74W to 09N86W to 11N108W to 09N113W...where it transitions to ITCZ...continuing on to 07.5N118W to 08N123W. ITCZ begins anew from 13N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm s and 360 nm n of trough between 90W and 102W, and within 150 nm n of trough between 105W and 111W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm n and 60 nm s of ITCZ between 113W and 121W, and within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 133W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: Tropical Storm Frank continues drifting slowly westward away from Socorro and the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds and seas will slowly improve for these locales. Outer bands of moderate convection along the southeast side of Frank have recently shifted westward and away from the islands this afternoon. Southerly swell associated with Frank that impacted the area around Los Cabos and the entrance to the Gulf of California has begun to fade today as the storm shifts westward. This swell will continue to reach the Pacific coast of south and central portions of Baja California, and mix with northerly swell in the waters of Baja California Norte through mid week. South of 15N and east of 120W: Moderate to locally fresh east winds are expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by nocturnal drainage flow. West of 120W: High pressure is building north of the area and into the sub- tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has dissipated west of the area. This is allowing a modest increase in trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W, supporting an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ boundary. Georgette will track northwest and weaken the ridge again during the next couple of days, allowing trade winds to diminish. Northerly swell to 9 ft generated from strong winds offshore of the California coast will continue to propagate into the waters west of 120W and north of 22N into mid week, and mix with southeast swell generated from Georgette, and Frank as it crosses west of 120W early Wednesday. $$ Stripling