000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1558 UTC Mon Jul 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Georgette is centered at 17.5N 125.3W at 1200 UTC, moving northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is at 961 mb. The cloud top temperatures are a little warmer indicating Georgette has weakened slightly. Scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the northwest semicircle and 60 nm in the southeast semicircle. Georgette is expected to continue to weaken as it moves northwest over cooler water during the next couple of days, eventually diminishing to below tropical storm force by Wednesday night. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 20.4N 113.9W at 1500 UTC, or about 270 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and about 150 nm north-northeast of Clarion Island. Frank is moving west, or 280 degrees at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the southeast semicircle and 60 nm northwest semicircle of the low level center of Frank. Northwest shear continues to impact Frank. The low level center was partially exposed earlier this morning, but appears to be into the main convection in the latest satellite images. Frank will continue to move west- northwest and start to weaken by Tuesday afternoon then move northwest before becoming a post- tropical remnant low Thursday. Large south swell from Frank continue to impact coast of Baja California Sur, generating rough and dangerous surf along the local regional coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave N of 10N along 97W/98W is triggering scattered moderate to isolated strong convection near the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 12N to 17N between 93W and 100W. This wave will shift to the west of the Tehuantepec region and the adjacent near and offshore coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N85W to 08N92W to 10N105W. The ITCZ continues from 10N105W to 11N109W to 07N118W then resumes from 13N132W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm south of the axis between 85W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 105W and 115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: Tropical Storm Frank continues drifting slowly westward away from Socorro and the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds and seas will slowly improve for these locales. However, outer bands of moderate convection along the southeast side of Frank persist across the islands this morning. Southerly swell associated with Frank that impacting the area around Los Cabos and the entrance to the Gulf of California will taper off today as the storm shifts westward. The swell will continue to impact the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur, and mix with northerly swell in the waters of Baja California Norte through mid week. South of 15N and east of 120W: Moderate to locally fresh east winds are expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by nocturnal drainage flow. West of 120W: High pressure is building north of the area and into the sub- tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has dissipated west of the area. This is allowing a modest increase in trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W, supporting an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ boundary. Georgette will track northwest and weaken the ridge again during the next couple of days, allowing trade winds to diminish. Swell generated from Georgette, and Frank as it crosses west of 120W Tuesday night, will interact with northerly swell generated from strong winds west of the California coast. Northerly swell to 9 ft will continue to propagate into the waters west of 120W and north of 24N into mid week. $$ Christensen