000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242213 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1450 UTC Sun Jul 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Georgette is centered at 15.7N 125.4W at 2100 UTC, moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has dropped to 972 mb. An eye has become apparent in the past couple of hours per satellite imagery, and reflects the recent intensification. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. Georgette is expected to continue moving northwest during the next few of days, and has a chance to strengthen a bit further tonight before reaching cooler waters Monday that will induce a gradual weakening trend. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 20.0N 112.8W at 2100 UTC, or about 240 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank is moving west-northwest, or 285 degrees at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt while estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Frank has slowed down this afternoon with the center attempting to shift underneath the strongest convection. This in combination with a modest decrease in upper level northeasterly wind shear, has allowed Frank to intensify slightly, and there is a good chance further intensification tonight will allow Frank to become a hurricane. Frank will continue moving west-northwest over the next few days and gradually weaken to a tropical storm before becoming a post-tropical remnant low on Thu. Large southerly swell from Frank continues to impact the southern coast of Baja California Sur and south portions of the Gulf of California this afternoon, which will gradually shift northward into central portions of the Baja Peninsula Monday. This will generate rough and dangerous surf along the local regional coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weakening tropical wave north of 09N is along about 105W this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered convection associated with the wave is present mainly near the monsoon trough. A second tropical wave north of 10N is along 93W/94W and contributing to widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection across this area. This wave will shift to the west across the Tehuantepec region and the adjacent near and offshore coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N74W to 07N81W to 09N94W to 07.5N108W to 08N110W. The ITCZ extends from 11.5N126W to beyond 09N140W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 05N to 09.5N east of 89W, and northof11N between 90W and 97W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also noted within 90 nm north and 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 126W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: Tropical Storm Frank continues to move slowly west-northwest away from Socorro and the Revillagigedo Islands, with winds and seas gradually improving. However bands of moderate to strong convection occurring across the southeast side of Frank persist across the islands this afternoon. Southerly swell associated with Frank has been impacting the area between the southern entrance of the Gulf of California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes, and has shifted north and northeast and spread inside southern portions of the Gulf of California. Offshore seas of 6 to 10 ft are presently occurring across this area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will spread over the Pacific offshore waters off Baja California Sur through early Monday, away from the immediate vicinity of Frank. This will maintain rough and hazardous marine conditions across the offshore waters, and produce large and powerful surf along the exposed coastal areas of Baja California Sur and western Mexico. Large waves and very strong rip currents will dominate these coastlines throughout the weekend. As Frank moves NW Monday and Tuesday, it will encounter cooler waters and begin to gradually weaken over the open Pacific. A relatively deep 1003 mb low was analyzed on the 1200 UTC surface map this morning over the lower Colorado River valley, with a surface trough reaching though the northern Gulf of California. This supported moderate to fresh southerly flow across the far northern Gulf of California earlier. This has diminished during the day, and only light to moderate southerly flow is anticipated over the next several days across the central and north portions of the Gulf of California. Northerly swell related to strong winds of California are pushing south and will mix with southerly swell generated from Frank off the Baja California Norte coast through the next couple of days. South of 15N and east of 120W: Moderate to locally fresh east winds are expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by nocturnal drainage flow. West of 120W: High pressure is building north of the area and into the sub- tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has dissipated west of the area. This is allowing a modest increase in trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W, supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms north of a newly formed ITCZ boundary. The track of Georgette will weaken the ridge again however over the the next couple of days, allowing trade winds to diminish. Swell generated from Georgette, and soon Frank as it crosses west of 120W Tuesday night, will interact with northerly swell generated from strong winds off California. Northerly swell to 9 ft will propagate into the waters west of 120W and north of 24N into mid week. $$ Stripling