000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241450 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1450 UTC Sun Jul 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Georgette is centered at 15.1N 124.6W at 1500 UTC, moving west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has dropped to 984 mb. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Georgette is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next couple of days, but will weaken to tropical storm strength Monday night. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 20.3N 112.4W at 1500 UTC, or about 210 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank is moving west-northwest, or 295 degrees at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt while estimated minimum central pressure stays at 996 mb. Frank continues to move under NE upper- level wind shear, which is displacing most of the deep convection to the south of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the south semicircle, and within 30 nm of the north semicircle of the center. The persistent shear will likely keep Frank from intensifying further as it moves west-northwest, and Frank is expected to start to weaken Monday. Large southerly swell from Frank will impact the southern coast of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days and shift northward into central portions of the Baja Peninsula Monday. This will generate rough and dangerous surf along the local coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave north of 11N near 97W/98W, just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. The wave has little associated convection. A second tropical wave north of 10N through the western Yucatan Peninsula along 91W/92W is enhancing scattered overnight convection within 150 nm . This wave will shift to the west over southeastern Mexico and the adjacent near and offshore coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N78W to 08N87W to 08N104W to 10N111W. The ITCZ extends from 10N128W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 180 nm south of axis east of 82W. Scattered moderate convection also noted within 60 nm either side of ITCZ axis between 134W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: Strong southerly flow persists this morning over Socorro Island in the wake of Tropical Storm Frank, which passed over the Revillagigedo Islands yesterday. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off through today over Socorro as the storm moves farther to the west-northwest. Southerly swell associated with Frank has been impacting the area between the southern entrance of the Gulf of California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes, although this is starting to subside. Offshore seas of 5 to 7 ft are present in this area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will cover the Pacific offshore waters off Baja California Sur through early Monday, away from the immediate vicinity of Frank. This will create rough and hazardous marine conditions across the offshore waters, and large and powerful surf along the exposed coastal areas of Baja California Sur. Large waves and very strong rip currents will dominate these coastlines throughout the weekend. As Frank moves NW Monday and Tuesday, it will encounter cooler waters and begin to weaken over the open Pacific. A relatively deep 1003 mb low was analyzed on the 12 UTC surface map this morning over the lower Colorado River valley, with a surface trough reaching though the northern Gulf of California. This supported moderate to fresh southerly flow across the far northern Gulf of California earlier. This has likely diminished already, and only light to moderate southerly flow is anticipated over the next several days across the Gulf of California. Northerly swell related to strong winds of California are pushing south and will mix with southerly swell generated from Frank off the Baja California Norte coast through the next couple of days. South of 15N and east of 120W: Moderate to locally fresh east winds are expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by nocturnal drainage flow. West of 120W: High pressure is building north of the area and into the sub- tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has dissipated west of the area. This is allowing a modest increase in trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W, supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms north of a newly formed ITCZ boundary. The track of Georgette will weaken the ridge again however over the the next couple of days, allowing trade winds to diminish. Swell generated from Georgette, and soon Frank as it crosses west of 120W Tuesday night, will interact with northerly swell generated from strong winds off California. Northerly swell to 9 ft will propagate into the waters west of 120W and north of 25N into mid week. $$ CHRISTENSEN