000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240947 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 855 UTC Sun Jul 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Georgette is centered at 14.5N 123.9W at 0900 UTC, or about 1085 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Georgette is moving WNW or 290 degrees at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has dropped to 988 mb. A tight concentric pattern of convection continues to surround Georgette's center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center, while scattered moderate convection is present elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. Georgette is expected to continue moving WNW during the next couple of days but begin to weaken during the next 12 hours. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 19.9N 111.8W at 0900 UTC, or about 240 nm south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank is moving WNW, or 305 degrees at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt while estimated minimum central pressure stays at 996 mb. Frank continues to move under NE upper-level wind shear, which is displacing most of the deep convection to the southwest of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 45 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 15N to 21N between 109W and 115W. Frank is expected to continue moving NW during the next couple of days and remain under the influence of this northeast upper-level wind shear. This will discourage intensification of Frank. Frank is not expected to change much in intensity during the next 24 hours. Large S to SE swell from Frank will impact the Mexican coastlines from the Cabo Corrientes region to Baja California Sur during the next couple of days and shift northward into central portions of the Baja Peninsula Monday. This will generate rough and dangerous surf along the local coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave north of 11N near 98W is just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and is moving into southwestern Mexico and the adjacent coastal waters. The wave has little associated convection. A second tropical wave extends from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula southward to the Pacific waters along 90W. This wave will shift to the W over southeastern Mexico and the adjacent near and offshore coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours. The wave will continue to spawn active convection. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N84W to 10N94W to 08N102W to 09N106W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to beyond 08N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 12N E of 108W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm N of the ITCZ between 131W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: The center of Frank has crossed the Revillagigedo Islands and has begun moving away to the NW. Frank continues to generate large SE swell that has reaching the southern entrance of the Gulf of California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. Offshore seas of 6 to 9 ft are present in this area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will cover the Pacific offshore waters off Baja California Sur through early Monday, away from the immediate vicinity of Frank. This will create rough and hazardous marine conditions across the offshore waters, and large and powerful surf along the exposed coastal areas of Baja California Sur. Large waves and very strong rip currents will dominate these coastlines throughout the weekend. As Frank moves NW Monday and Tuesday, it will encounter cooler waters and begin to weaken over the open Pacific. A surface ridge extends from north of the area through 30N135W to W of Baja California Sur near 21N119W. Moderate southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California between the ridge and resident troughing wandering over the peninsula. These southerly winds could increase to 15 to 20 kt over the far northern portions of the Gulf of California early this morning as high pressure builds to the northwest. The building high pressure will also support strong N winds offshore of California this morning through Sunday, allowing N swell to cause seas to build to 8 ft or higher and propagate southward to 26N by Sunday. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft will develop in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Sunday into early next week in mixed swell. South of 15N and east of 120W: Moderate to locally fresh E winds are expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by nocturnal drainage flow. Farther W, Georgette has moved to the W of the area, taking the associated strong winds and seas 8 ft or greater with it. West of 120W: Post-tropical cyclone Estelle was centered to the W of the forecast area at 24N142W at 0900 UTC moving westward at around 15 kt. Satellite imagery continues to show a low level cloud swirl surrounding the low with no significant convection. Associated winds and seas will gradually diminish through the weekend as Estelle continues to weaken and move farther W of the area. However, this remnant low continues to produce a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This has resulted in a light wind regime persisting over the deep tropics. Fresh N winds and shorter period swell of 7 to 9 ft will push south of 32N to 26N between 120W and 136W Sunday until the middle of next week. $$ CAM