000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232217 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 19.1N 110.6W at 2100 UTC, or about 230 nm south of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank is moving west-northwest, or 300 degrees at 6 kt. The maximum sustained winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt and Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Frank continues to move under northeasterly wind shear, displacing much of the deep convection to the south of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm north and 120 nm south of the center. Frank is expected to continue moving northwest during the next couple of days and remain under the influence of this northeast wind shear. This will prevent Frank from further intensification, and Frank is no longer expected to reach hurricane strength. Large S to SE swell from Frank will impact the Mexican coastlines from the Cabo Corrientes region to Baja California Sur during the next couple of days and spread into central portions of the baja peninsula Monday. This will generate rough and dangerous surf along the local coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered at 13.9N 122.3W at 2100 UTC, or about 885 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Georgette is moving west-northwest or 285 degrees at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a more circular pattern of convection surrounding Georgette with a raged eye gradually developing. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm northwest and 120 nm across southeast semicircles. Georgette is expected to continue to move west-northwest and intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Post-tropical cyclone Estelle was centered at 23.5N139W at 2100 UTC. The estimated pressure was 1012 mb. Satellite imagery shows a low level cloud swirl surrounding the low with no significant convection. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through the weekend as Estelle continues to weaken while moving west- northwest over cooler waters. Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with these three systems. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave north of 13N near 97W is exiting the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and moving into southwestern Mexico and the adjacent coastal waters. The wave is expected to enhance overnight convection off the coast of Mexico north of 12N between 97W and 105W. A second tropical wave extends from the Gulf of Honduras southward to the Pacific waters along 85W. This wave will shift west across Central America and the adjacent near and offshore coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours and continue to spawn active convection. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1008 mb near 07N74W to 09N95W to 11.5N108W. The ITCZ extends from 09N122W to 08N132W to 07N140W. Clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm n and 180 nm s of the trough between 80W and 102W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm north and 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 122W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: Frank is quickly approaching the northeastern Revillagigedo Islands as a tropical storm this afternoon, and will move across Isla San Benedicto during the next few hours. Frank is generating large southeast swell that has begun to reach the southern entrance of the Gulf of California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes to produce offshore seas of 6 to 8 ft. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will cover the Pacific offshore waters off Baja California Sur through early next week outside of the main storm environment of Frank, as it continues moving northwest into the open Pacific waters. This will create rough and hazardous marine conditions across the offshore waters, and large and powerful surf conditions along exposed coastal areas of Baja California Sur. Large waves and very strong rip currents will dominate these coastlines throughout the weekend. A surface ridge extends from north of the area through 30N130W to near Baja California Sur. Moderate southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California between the ridge and resident troughing meandering across the peninsula. These southerly winds may increase to 15 to 20 kt over the far northern portions of the Gulf of California by tonight as high pressure builds to the northwest. The building high pressure will also support strong northerly winds offshore of California tonight through Sunday, allowing northerly swell to raise seas to 8 ft or higher and penetrate south to 26N by Sunday. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft will develop in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Sunday into early next week in mixed swell. South of 15N and east of 120W: Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours the next several days aided by nocturnal drainage flow. Farther west, Georgette is moving to the west of the area. The associated strong winds and seas 8 ft or greater shifting west of 120W through late today. Georgette is forecast to reach hurricane strength during the next 24 hours. West of 120W: The remnant low of Estelle continues to produce a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This has resulted in a light wind flow persisting over the deep tropics. Fresh east winds continue between Estelle and the high to the north, but the winds will continue to gradually diminish as Estelle weakens further as it moves westward. Fresh northerly wind and short period swell of 7 to 9 ft will push south of 32N to 26N between 119W and 130W Sunday until early next week. $$ Stripling