000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1307 UTC Sat Jul 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank was centered at 18.8N 110.2W at 1500 UTC, or about 360 nm west of Manzanillo, Mexico. Frank is moving west- northwest, or 300 degrees at 7 kt. The maximum sustained winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Frank is experiencing northerly shear, displacing most of the deep convection to the south of the center. Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm southwest of the center. Frank is expected to continue moving northwest and reach hurricane strength Sunday. Large S to SE swell from Frank will impact the Mexican coastlines from the Cabo Corrientes region to Baja California Sur during the next couple of days and generate rough and dangerous surf. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Georgette was centered at 13.9N 121.4W at 1500 UTC, or about 850 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Georgette is moving west-northwest or 295 degrees at 11 kt. The maximum sustained winds remain at 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the southwest semicircle of the storm. Georgette is expected to continue to move west-northwest and intensify into a hurricane late tonight to early Sunday morning.Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Post-tropical cyclone Estelle was centered at 23.5N 137.5W at 1500 UTC. The estimated pressure was 1012 mb. No significant convection is noted. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through the weekend as Estelle continues to weaken as it moves west-northwest over cooler waters. Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with these three systems. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave north of 11N near 93W/94W is moving into the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. The wave may be enhancing overnight convection off the coast of Mexico north of 12N between 94W and 97W. The movement of the tropical wave into the Gulf of Tehuantepec has weakened the fairly tight gradient in place yesterday that brought 20 to 25 kt gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec yesterday morning. A second tropical wave is moving onshore from the western Caribbean into eastern Nicaragua and Honduras. This wave will shift west across Central America during the next 24-36 hours and continue to spawn active convection ahead of it. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N90W to 08N105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough axis east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection also noted within 60 nm north of the axis between 90W and 92W, and within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough axis between 95W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: Frank is approaching the eastern Revillagigedo Islands as a tropical storm, and is forecast to intensify to a hurricane Sunday as it continues to move west-northwest. Frank is generating seas of 6 to 8 ft southeast swell that will reach the southern entrances of the Gulf of California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will cover the Pacific offshore waters off Baja California Sur through early next week outside of the main storm environment of Frank, as it continues moving northwest into the open Pacific waters. This will create rough and hazardous marine conditions across the offshore waters, and dangerous conditions in the surf zone along exposed coastal areas of Baja California Sur. Large waves and very strong rip currents will dominate these coastlines this weekend. A surface ridge extends from north of the area through 30N130W toward Baja California Sur. Moderate southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California between the ridge and resident troughing meandering across the peninsula. These southerly winds may increase to 15 to 20 kt over the far northern portions of the Gulf of California by tonight as high pressure builds to the northwest. The building high pressure will also support strong northerly winds offshore of California tonight through Sunday, allowing northerly swell to raise seas to 8 ft or higher to penetrate south to 26N by Sunday. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft will develop in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Sunday into early next week in mixed swell. South of 15N and east of 120W: Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours the next several days aided by nocturnal drainage flow. Farther west, Georgette is moving to the west of the area. The associated strong winds and seas 8 ft or greater shifting west of 120W through late today. West of 120W: The remnant low of Estelle continues to weaken the subtropical ridge. This has resulted in a light wind flow persisting over the deep tropics. Fresh east winds continue between Estelle and the high to the north, but the winds will diminish as Estelle dissipates as it moves westward. Fresh northerly wind and short period swell of 7 to 9 ft will push south of 32N to 26N between 119W and 130W Sunday until early next week. $$ Christensen