000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220315
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 UTC Fri Jul 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Estelle was centered at 21.0N 130.9W, or about
1175 nautical miles W of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula at 0300 UTC Jul 22. Estelle is moving WNW, or 290
degrees at 14 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts
to 50 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm of the storm center.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Frank was centered at 16.1N 105.2W, or about 180
nautical miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico at 0300 UTC Jul 22. Frank
is moving NW, or 310 degrees at 15 kt. The maximum sustained winds
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present from 12N to 18N between 103W and 108W.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Eight-E was centered at 11.6N 115.0W, or
about 740 miles SSW of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula at 0300 UTC Jul 22. The depression is moving WNW, or 295
degrees at 11 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts
to 40 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 108W and
120W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these three systems.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 08N87W to 12N97W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 300 nm
south of the monsoon trough axis between 83W and 94W.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

See special features above for information about Tropical Storm
Frank. Frank is forecasted to intensify into a Hurricane during
the next day or so and track northwest across the area through
the middle of next week.

Winds will reach 20 to 25 kt tonight and to around 20 kt Fri night over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec aided by high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico. Seas may reach as high as 8 ft Fri morning. 

A surface ridge extends from 32N128W to 19N112W. The gradient on
the E side of the ridge will continue to support moderate
northwest to north winds through tonight, then will increase to fresh
several hundred miles west of Baja California Friday and Saturday,
with seas gradually building to 5 to 8 ft during that time period.
 
A NNW to SSE oriented trough will meander E and W over the Baja
California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California this
week, maintaining light and variable winds across the Gulf of
California waters through Fri. Gentle to moderate southerly flow
is expected from Sat until early next week.
 
S of 15N E of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across and
just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours
the next several days aided by nocturnal drainage flow.

Tropical Depression Eight-E has developed over the western
portion of this area. Please refer to the special features section
for more details.

W of 120W:

Tropical Storm Estelle will continue to move west-northwestward
through the west-central portion of the area through this
upcoming weekend with an area of 8 ft or greater seas propagating
up to 300 nm away from the center of the storm. Please see the
special features for more details on this storm. 

Tropical Depression Eight-E will make its way into the
southeastern portion of this region late this weekend as it
strengthens into a tropical storm.

$$

Latto