000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1939 UTC Thu Jul 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Estelle was centered at 20.7N 129.7W, or about 1100 nautical miles W of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula at 2100 UTC Jul 21. Estelle is moving WNW, or 290 degrees at 14 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Scattered moderate convection is currently noted within 150 nm over the northern semicircle. Estelle is forecast to track across cooler ocean waters and entrain drier air, and is expected to weaken to a remnant low in about 24 hours. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Newly developed Tropical Storm Frank was centered at 14.9N 104.0W, or about 590 nautical miles southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula at 2100 UTC Jul 21. Frank is moving NW, or 305 degrees at 12 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 12N to 18N between 99W and 109W. Frank is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane over the next couple of days. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Newly developed Tropical Depression Eight-E was centered at 10.8N 114.0W, or about 765 miles SSW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula at 2100 UTC Jul 21. The depression is moving WNW, or 290 degrees at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 109W and 120W. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm over the next day or two. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with these three systems. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N84W to 11N94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough axis. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: See special features above for information about Tropical Storm Frank that will track northwest across the area through the middle of next week. Winds will reach 20 to 25 kt tonight over the Gulf of Tehuantepec aided by high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Seas may reach as high as 8 ft. The winds and seas will subside during the day Friday. A surface ridge extends from 32N125W to 19N113W. The gradient on the E side of the ridge will continue to support moderate northwest to north winds through tonight, then will increase to fresh several hundred miles west of Baja California Friday and Saturday, with seas gradually building to 5 to 8 ft during that time period. A NNW to SSE oriented trough will meander E and W over the Baja California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California this week, maintaining light and variable winds across the Gulf of California waters through Fri. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected from Sat until early next week. S of 15N E of 120W: Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours the next several days aided by nocturnal drainage flow. Tropical Depression Eight has developed over the western portion of this area. Please refer to the special features section for more details. W of 120W: See the special features above for information on Tropical Storm Estelle that will continue to move west-northwestward through the west- central portion of the area through this upcoming weekend with an area of 8 ft or greater seas propagating around 300 nm away from the center of the storm. Tropical Depression Eight will make its way into the southeastern portion of this region late this weekend. $$ Latto