000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Darby has moved well west of the discussion area and west of 140W this evening, and was centered near near 19.8N 142.6W at 0300 UTC. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Tropical storm force winds extends eastward from Darby across 140W to 139w, with strong winds and seas 8-12 ft within 330 nm across the ne quadrant. All associated conditions are expected to shift west of 140W by Friday morning. See latest CPC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMCP3/WTPA23 PHFO for more details. Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 19.5N 125.5W at 0300 UTC or about 890 nm wsw of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm across the nw semicircle, while scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm across the e and 120 nm across the w semicircles. Estelle has reached its peak intensity and is forecast to gradually weaken through the remainder of the week, as it gradually moves west-northwest then northwest across cooler waters. Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Friday morning, eventually dissipating by early Monday morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. A 1008 mb surface low is located near 10N110.5W this evening, where convection has become slightly better organized. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring in short bands from 07N to 14N between 97W and 104W. Winds across the northern side of the low are 15 to 25 kt and forecast to slowly increase during the next 24 to 48 hours, while fresh monsoonal sw winds presently occurring s of the low will increase to strong by Fri. Computer models suggest that this area of low pressure is in a favorable area to gradually improve in organization and strength as it moves northwest and parallel to the coast of Mexico over the next few days. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N73W to 07N83W to low pressure near 10N100.5W to low pres near 09.5N110.5W to 14N122W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 07N to 10N east of 87W, and also from 12.5N to 15N between 92W and 102W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm s of the trough between 114W and 123W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on tropical cyclone Estelle which is now located west of 120W. An associated area of seas of 8 ft and greater will shift west of 120W during the next few hours. A surface ridge will build in the wake of Estelle tonight from 26N120W to 17N110W. The gradient ne of the ridge will support moderate nw-n winds across the waters through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend, except increasing to a fresh nw breeze during the late afternoon and early evening hours along the Pacific coast of Baja California. Combined seas of 4-7 ft are forecast to build to 5-8 ft on Friday through Sunday. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula, and the northern Gulf of California through the remainder of the week, supporting light and variable winds inside the Gulf of California waters through Friday, then moderate southerly flow is expected Saturday and Sunday. Southerly flow across portions north of 29N may increase to strong by Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly drainage flow will continue to pulse in and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours through early Saturday. The resultant ne swell will propagate southwest, and mix with long period cross-equatorial southwest swell, with combined seas of 6-8 ft forecast through early Thursday. S of 15N e of 120W: Moderate to locally fresh e winds are expected across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours for the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. W of 120W: Other than tropical cyclones Darby and Estelle which are referenced in the special features section, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail both to the north and south of the monsoon trough. Expect confused seas due to the impacts of mixing swell from Darby and Estelle. $$ Stripling