000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202211 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Darby centered near 19.9N 141.3W at 2100 UTC or about 895 miles e of Hilo, Hawaii moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm across the east semicircle. Darby has moved west of 140W this afternoon with all associated conditions expected to shift west of 140W by Friday morning. See latest CPC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMCP3/WTPA23 PHFO for more details. Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 19.4N 124.4W at 2100 UTC or about 835 nm wsw of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center, while scattered moderate convection is within120 nm across the se quadrant. Estelle has reached its peak intensity in the past 12-18 hours and is forecast to gradually weaken through the remainder of the week, as it gradually moves west-northwest then northwest across cooler waters. Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Friday morning, eventually dissipating by early Monday morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave extends from the Gulf of Tehuantepec region sw to the vicinity of low pressure near 10N99W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 17N between 96.5W and 105W. Computer models suggest that this area of low pressure is in a favorable area to gradually improve in organization and strength as it moves northwest over the next few days. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to 10N97W to low pressure near 09N109W to 14N134W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 88W and 91W, and also from 05N to 09N between 99W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on tropical cyclone Estelle which is now located west of 120W. An associated area of combined seas of 8 ft and greater will shift w of 120W by this evening. A surface ridge will build in the wake of Estelle tonight from 26N120W to 17N110W. The gradient ne of the ridge will support moderate nw-n winds across the waters through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend, except increasing to a fresh nw breeze during the late afternoon and early evening hours along the Pacific coast of Baja California. Combined seas of 4-7 ft are forecast to build to 5-8 ft on Friday through Sunday. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula, and the northern Gulf of California through the remainder of the week, supporting light and variable winds inside the Gulf of California waters through Saturday, then moderate southerly flow is expected on Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly drainage flow will continue to pulse in and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours through early Saturday. The resultant ne swell will propagate southwest, and mix with long period cross-equatorial southwest swell, with combined seas of 6-9 ft forecast between 94W and 103W through early Thursday. S of 15N e of 120W: A weak surface low is located near 09.5N109W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1010 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 109W and 115W. Winds on the northern side of the low are pulsing to fresh and are forecast to increase to fresh to strong during the next 24 hours, while fresh monsoonal sw winds presently occurring s of the low will increase to strong by Fri. A surrounding area of combined seas of 6-9 ft roughly from the equator to 11N between 102W and 114W will become more concentrated around the low while it shifts westward with the potential to become better organized. Moderate to locally fresh e winds are expected across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours for the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. W of 120W: Other than tropical cyclones Darby and Estelle which are referenced in the special features section, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail both to the north and south of the monsoon trough. Expect confused seas due to the impacts of mixing swell from Darby and Estelle. $$ Stripling