000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201448 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1448 UTC Wed Jul 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Darby centered near 19.9N 139.8W at 20/1500 UTC or about 995 miles e of Hilo, Hawaii moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm in the northeast and 45 nm in the southwest semicircles. Darby is forecast to move west of 140W later this morning with all associated conditions shifting west of 140W by Friday morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Estelle centered near 19.2N 123.3W at 20/1500 UTC or about 900 miles wsw of the southern tip of Baja California moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 45 nm in the northwest and 120 nm in the southeast semicircles. Estelle is forecast to gradually weaken through the remainder of the week, becoming a post-tropical cyclone by early Friday morning, eventually dissipating by early Monday morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 11N along 94W moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N to 15N between 88W and 102W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to 10N97W to low pressure near 09N109W to 14N134W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 88W and 91W, and also from 05N to 09N between 99W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on tropical cyclone Estelle which is now located west of 120W. An associated area of combined seas of 8 ft and greater will shift w of 120W by this evening. A surface ridge will build in the wake of Estelle tonight from 26N120W to 17N110W. The gradient ne of the ridge will support moderate nw-n winds across the waters through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend, except increasing to a fresh nw breeze during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Combined seas of 4-7 ft are forecast to build to 5-8 ft on Friday through Sunday. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula, and the northern Gulf of California through the remainder of the week, supporting light and variable winds across the Gulf of California waters through Saturday, then moderate southerly flow is expected on Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly drainage flow will continue to pulse in and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours through early Saturday. The resultant ne swell will propagate southwest, and mix with long period cross-equatorial southwest swell, with combined seas of 6-9 ft forecast between 94W and 103W through early Thursday. S of 15N e of 120W: A weak surface low is located near 09N109W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1009 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 109W and 115W. Winds on the northern side of the low are pulsing to fresh and are forecast to increase to fresh to strong by early Friday morning. A surrounding area of combined seas of 6-9 ft roughly from the equator to 11N between 84W and 107W will become more concentrated around the low while it shifts westward with the potential to become better organized. Another weak area of low pressure may develop along or just ahead of a tropical wave to the southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to locally fresh e winds are expected across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours for the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. W of 120W: Other than tropical cyclones Darby and Estelle which are referenced in the special features section, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail both to the north and south of the monsoon trough. Expect confused combined seas due to the impacts of Darby and Estelle. $$ JLewitsky