000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191620 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 19 2016 corrected header time Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby was downgraded to a tropical storm at 1500 UTC Jul 19 near 19.8N 135.4W, which is about 1280 miles east of Hilo Hawaii. Darby is moving west-northwest or 285 deg at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds have diminished to 60 kt with gusts to 70 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Latest satellite imagery shows that the convective banding features have become fragmented during the morning. Scattered moderate convection is currently observed within 30 nm of a line from 20N136W to 21N135W, and within 30 nm of 21N136W. Darby is forecast to gradually continue to weaken over the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also, refer to the latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated to Darby. Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 18.8N 118.8W, which is about 640 miles wsw of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula at 1500 UTC Jul 19. Estelle is moving west-northwest, or 285 degrees at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Estelle exhibited an eye feature earlier this morning, but recently closed up under deep convection. Scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center, except 30 nm in the northeast quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of a line from from 17N119W to 19N121W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from 19N121W to 21N120W. Estelle is still expected to strengthen to a minimal hurricane by this evening near 19.2N 120.5W before weakening again to a tropical storm. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with Tropical Storm Estelle. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave axis is analyzed north of 06N along 89W and has been moving w at about 12 kt. Convection remains rather minimal with this wave. Only scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm of 12N90W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends w from the pacific coast of Colombia at 09N79W to 10N88W to 08N96W to 10N100W, where it loses identity in broad cyclonic circulation associated with tropical cyclone estelle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of the trough between 77W and 81W, and between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 100W and 107W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on tropical cyclone Estelle which will continue westward across the sw portion of the discussion area, with the associated area of tropical storm conditions and greater shifting w of 120W tonight. An associated large area of combined seas of 8 ft and greater will shift west of 120W on Wed night. A surface ridge will build in the wake of Estelle from 27N120W to 15N106W late Wed. The gradient ne of the ridge will support moderate to fresh northwest to north winds across the waters n of 29N on Wed, with seas of 4-7 ft building to 5-8 ft on Fri and Sat. A northwest to southeats orientated trough will meander east and west over the Baja California Peninsula, and the northern Gulf of California this week, supporting light and variable winds across the Gulf of California waters through Fri, then moderate southerly flow is expected on Sat. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, and lower pressure across the tropical Eastern Pacific, resulted in strong to near gale force northerly flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. These conditions will develop again tonight into Wednesday morning, with seas building to 12 ft downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during each event. Weaker northerly flow is expected late in the week. S of 15N e of 120W: Fresh southerly winds, with seas of 7-11 ft, will shift westward across the discussion waters from 13-15N west of 113W through tonight, all in association with tropical cyclone Estelle which is centered just n of the area. Strong e winds will develop across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. The resultant e wind wave will mix with long period cross equatorial sw swell that will propagate ne across the waters east of 115W this week. Seas to 8 ft are expected across the open pacific waters between 82W and 113W through Thu night when they will subside to less than 8 ft. W of 120W: See special features above for information on tropical cyclones Darby and Estelle that will pass westward through the central portion this week. Combined seas of 7-11 ft primarily due to mixing swell, are expected to surround the large seas near the the cyclones, and cover the waters elsewhere to the north of 10N this week. $$ AGUIRRE