000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180242 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 18 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby centered at 18.4N 129.0W at 0300 UTC moving west or 275 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is steady at 978 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 to 90 nm of the center of Darby. Darby will continue to weaken over the next few days and is expected to lose hurricane intensity on Monday. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also, refer to the latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated to Darby. Tropical Storm Estelle was centered near 17.0N 113.2W at 0300 UTC moving west-northwest or 290 degrees at 8 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Numerous strong convection is observed along a band within 180 nm in the north semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm in the southeast semicircle. Estelle is expected to continue to strengthen reaching hurricane strength tonight. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with Tropical Storm Estelle. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The southern portion of a tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean is moving across western Panama along 81w/82w. This is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection within 90 to 120 nm of the coast of Panama. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough may be breaking down into a series of weak circulations along a general surface trough that extends west from 09N82W to 09N95W to 10N108W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of the trough axis between 80W and 90W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: The core of what will likely be Hurricane Estelle will pass over Clarion Island tonight into Monday. Strong winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft will impact the remainder of the Revillagigedo Islands as well. Estelle will produce swell of 8 to 10 ft impacting much of the area south of 25N and west of the Baja California peninsula through Tuesday. While significant wave heights will likely remain less than 8 ft in the area between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes into the southern Gulf of California, occasional large southerly swell from Estelle is possible over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly flow is likely over the northern Gulf of California between ridging to the west and resident troughing over the Baja California peninsula. Fresh to briefly strong westerly gap winds are possible tonight over the northwest Gulf of California near 30N. By mid week, longer period northerly swell will mix with the southerly swell from Estelle over the waters west of Baja California Norte maintaining 6 to 8 ft seas overall. Farther south, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, and lower pressure across the tropical Eastern Pacific, will result in fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, then increasing to strong north flow, with seas 8 to 11 ft by late Monday night and Tuesday morning. South of 15N and east of 120W: Aside from the southern portion of Estelle impacting the waters north of 12N and west of 105W through Monday, the main forecast issue will be fresh east gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours this week, with seas building to 8 ft as the resultant north to northeast wind waves mixes with long period cross equatorial southwest swell that will propagate northeast across the waters east of 110W this week. West of 120W: See special features above for information on tropical cyclones Darby and Estelle that will pass westward through the waters north of 15N. Longer period northerly swell is pushing south of 32N currently, and will mix with the southerly swell generated from Darby and Estelle over the waters north of 20N through mid week. $$ COBB