000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171531 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1531 UTC Sun Jul 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby centered at 18.3N 127.4W at 1500 UTC moving west or 280 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 974 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm northeast and 120 nm southwest semicircles. Darby will continue to weaken over the next few days. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also, refer to the latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated to Darby. Tropical Storm Estelle was centered near 16.3N 111.8W at 1500 UTC moving west-northwest or 285 degrees at 8 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Numerous strong convection is observed along a band within 180 nm in the southeast semicircle and 90 nm in the northwest semicircle of the center. Elsewhere scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 270 nm southeast and 150 nm northwest semicircles. Estelle is expected to continue to strengthen reaching hurricane strength later today. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with Tropical Storm Estelle. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The southern portion of a tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean is moving across eastern Panama and off the Pacific coast of Colombia. This is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough has broken down into a series of weak circulations along a general surface trough that extends west from 08N82W to 08N90W to 11N105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the trough axis between 85W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: The northern eyewall of what will likely be Hurricane Estelle will pass over Clarion Island tonight into early Monday. Strong winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft will impact the remainder of the Revillagigedo Islands as well. Estelle will produce swell of 8 to 10 ft impacting much of the area south of 25N and west of the Baja California peninsula through Tuesday. While significant wave heights will likely remain less than 8 ft in the area between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes into the southern Gulf of California, occasional large southerly swell from Estelle is possible over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly flow is likely over the northern Gulf of California between ridging to the west and resident troughing over the Baja California peninsula. Fresh to briefly strong westerly gap winds are possible tonight over the northwest Gulf of California near 30N. By mid week, longer period northerly swell will mix with the southerly swell from Estelle over the waters west of Baja California Norte maintaining 6 to 8 ft seas overall. Farther south, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, and lower pressure across the tropical Eastern Pacific, will result in fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, then increasing to strong north flow, with seas to 8 ft, on Monday night and Tuesday nights. South of 15N and east of 120W: Aside from the southern portion of Estelle impacting the waters north of 12N and west of 105W through Monday, the main forecast issue will be fresh east gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours this week, with seas building to 8 ft as the resultant north to northeast wind waves mixes with long period cross equatorial southwest swell that will propagate northeast across the waters east of 110W this week. West of 120W: See special features above for information on tropical cyclones Darby and Estelle that will pass westward through the waters north of 15N. Longer period northerly swell is pushing south of 32N currently, and will mix with the southerly swell generated from Darby and Estelle over the waters north of 20N through mid week. $$ Christensen