000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170945 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 17 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby centered at 18.2N 126.6W at 0900 UTC moving w or 280 deg at 08 kt. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 974 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection currently surrounds a 15 nm wide eye, roughly within 120 nm either side of a line from 17N125W to 20N128W. Darby will continue to weaken over the next few days. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also, refer to the latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated to Darby. Tropical Storm Estelle was centered near 16.2N 111.1W at 0900 UTC moving w-nw or 285 degrees at 08 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Numerous strong convection is observed along a band within 60 nm either side of a line from 16N110W to 15N109W to 13N110W to 14N113W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently noted elsewhere within 210 nm over the se, and within 180 nm over the nw semicircles. Estelle is expected to continue to strengthen reaching hurricane strength today. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with Tropical Storm Estelle. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A low level trough extends w from the pacific coast of Colombia at 07.5N78W to 08.5N98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of lines from 08N79W to 07N91W...from 06N96W to 10N111W and from 13N119W to 10N126W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along the pacific coast of Guatemala within 30 nm of 14N92W, and along the pacific coast of Mexico within 30 nm of 16N99W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on tropical cyclone Estelle which will continue w across the sw portion of the discussion area, with the associated area of tropical storm conditions and greater shifting w of 120W on Tue night, while combined seas of 8 ft or greater will shift w of 120W on Thu. A surface ridge will build in the wake of Estelle from 25N120W to 16N107W late in the week. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula, and the northern Gulf of California this week, supporting light to gentle southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters through Thu. This southerly flow is expected to increase to gentle to moderate flow on Thu night into Fri. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, and lower pressure across the tropical Eastern Pacific, will result in fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, then increasing to strong n flow, with seas to 8 ft, on Mon night and Tue nights. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on tropical cyclone Estelle centered just n of the area, with an associated area of fresh to strong southerly winds, and seas to 12 ft shifting w across the nw portion of the discussion area through Tue night. Fresh e winds will develop across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours this week, with seas building to 8 ft as the resultant n-ne wind wave mixes with long period cross equatorial sw swell that will propagate ne across the waters e of 110W this week. W of 120W: See special features above for information on tropical cyclones Darby and Estelle that will pass westward through the central portion this week. Combined seas of 7-11 ft primarily due to mixing swell, are expected to surround the large seas near the the cyclones, and cover the waters elsewhere to the n of 07N this week. $$ Nelson