000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC SUN Jul 17 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby centered at 18.2N 125.8W at 0300 UTC moving w-nw or 285 deg at 08 kt. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 970 mb. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the nw and 60 nm in the se semicircles of the center. Hurricane Darby peaked earlier as a Category 3 hurricane and is now on a weakening trend. Darby will continue to weaken over the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with Darby. Tropical Storm Estelle was centered near 16.1N 110.4W at 0300 UTC moving w-nw or 285 degrees at 07 kt. The maximum sustained winds remain 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm s and 120 nm nw semicircles of the center. Estelle is expected to continue to strengthen reaching hurricane strength by Sunday evening . Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with Tropical Storm Estelle. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N90W to 12N107W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm S of the axis e of 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong within 210 nm S of the axis between 90W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: Strong winds of 25 to 30 knots and seas of 12 TO 15 ft will impact Socorro Island tonight and Sunday then abate Sunday night. Tropical storm force winds are expected to impact Clarion Island by late Sunday and increase to hurricane force on Monday as Estelle intensifies and moves to the west-northwest close to the island. See special features above for details on T.S. Estelle. Strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will expand as far north as 25N within 210 nm southeast of Baja California Sur into mid week. A surface ridge from 26N120W to 18N104W will shift n today as Estelle passes to the s. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting light to gentle southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure across tropical Eastern Pacific will result in fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun night, and strong n flow with seas to 9 ft on Mon night. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle with strong to near tropical storm force conditions shifting w across the n-central and the nw portion of the discussion area through Tue. Fresh e winds will develop across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight...with fresh to locally strong drainage winds expected on Sun night with seas then building to about 7 ft. W of 120W: See special features above for information on Hurricane Darby that will pass through the central waters through mid week, and tropical cyclone Estelle that will begin to affect the e-central waters late Sun night, and shift w across the central waters late in the upcoming week. $$ Cobb