000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 16 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby centered at 18.0N 124.9W at 2100 UTC moving w-nw or 285 deg at 09 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 962 mb. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 to 75 nm of the center with scattered moderate isolated strong convection elsewhere within 90 nm of the center. Hurricane Darby has reached Category 3 intensity and likely peaked. Darby is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with Darby. Tropical Storm Estelle was centered near 15.8N 109.7W at 2100 UTC moving w-nw or 295 degrees at 07 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm s and 120 nm nw semicircles of the center. Estelle is expected to continue to strengthen reaching hurricane strength by early Sunday. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with Tropical Storm Estelle. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 05N95W to 12N104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the trough axis between 80W and 102W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: Winds to tropical storm force are expected to impact Clarion Island by late Sunday as Estelle intensifies and moves to the west-northwest to the south of the island. See special features above for details on T.S. Estelle. In addition, 25 to 30 winds and seas 8 to 12 ft will impact Socorro Island today through late Sunday. Strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will expand as far north as 25N within 210 nm southeast of Baja California Sur into mid week. A surface ridge from 26N120W to 18N104W will shift n today as Estelle passes to the s. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting light to gentle southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure across tropical Eastern Pacific will result in fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun night, and strong n flow with seas to 9 ft on Mon night. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle with strong to near tropical storm force conditions shifting w across the n-central and the nw portion of the discussion area through Tue. Fresh e winds will develop across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight...with strong drainage winds expected on Sun night with seas then building to about 7 ft. W of 120W: See special features above for information on Hurricane Darby that will pass through the central waters through mid week, and tropical cyclone Estelle that will begin to affect the e-central waters late Sun night, and shift w across the central waters late in the upcoming week. $$ Cobb