000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1419 UTC Sat Jul 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby centered at 17.8N 123.9W at 1500 UTC moving to the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 972 mb. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Darby, with scattered moderate isolated strong convection elsewhere within 90 nm of the center. Hurricane Darby has likely reached peak intensity and is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated to Darby. Tropical Storm Estelle was centered near 15.7N 109.0W at 1500 UTC moving to the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 7 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of a line from 19N108W to 16N112W to 14N108W. Estelle is expected to continue to strengthen reaching hurricane strength by early Sunday. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with Tropical Storm Estelle. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 12N104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm south of the monsoon trough axis between 80W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 120 nm of the coast from western Panama to southern Mexico east of 105W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: Winds to tropical storm force are expected to impact Clarion Island by late Sunday as Estelle intensifies and moves to the west-northwest to the south of the island. See special features above for details on Estelle. In addition, 25 to 30 winds and seas 8 to 12 ft will impact Socorro Island today through late Sunday. Strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will expand as far north as 25N within 210 nm southeast of Baja California Sur into mid week. A surface ridge from 26N120W to 18N104W will shift n today as Estelle passes to the s. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting light to gentle southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure across tropical Eastern Pacific will result in fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun night, and strong n flow with seas to 9 ft on Mon night. South of 15N and east of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle with strong to near tropical storm force conditions shifting w across the n-central and the nw portion of the discussion area through Tue. Fresh e winds will develop across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight...with strong drainage winds expected on Sun night with seas then building to about 7 ft. West of 120W: See special features above for information on Hurricane Darby that will pass through the central waters through mid week, and tropical cyclone Estelle that will begin to affect the e-central waters late Sun night, and shift w across the central waters late in the upcoming week. $$ CHRISTENSEN