000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160945
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 16 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Darby centered at 17.6N 123.1W at 0900 UTC moving w-nw
or 300 deg at 09 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with
gusts to 110 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 972 mb.
Numerous strong convection is noted within 45 nm either side of
a line from 18N122W to 17N122W to 16N123W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere within 120 nm
over the se and within 90 nm over the nw semicircles of center.
Hurricane Darby has likely reached peak intensity and is
expected to gradually weaken over the next few days.
See the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high
seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave
forecasts associated to Darby.

Tropical Storm Estelle was centered near 15.6N 109.0W at 0300
UTC moving w-nw or 295 degrees at 09 kt. The maximum sustained
winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 120 nm either side of a line from
11N106W to 18N110W. Estelle is expected to continue to
strengthen reaching hurricane strength by early Sunday. Refer to
the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high
seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave
forecasts associated with Tropical Storm Estelle. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N99W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 NM of
06N93W and 12N97W. Similar convection is noted within 45 nm
either side of a line from 13.5N91.5W to 16N95W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Estelle which will continue w across the s-central and sw
portion of the discussion area with the associated tropical
storm conditions and greater shifting w of 120W on Tue night,
while combined seas of 8 ft or greater will shift w of 120W late
Tue night.

A surface ridge from 26N120W to 18N104W will shift n today as
Estelle passes to the s. A nnw to sse orientated trough will
meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and the
northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting
light to gentle southerly flow across the Gulf of California
waters. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure across tropical Eastern
Pacific will result in fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on Sun night, and strong n flow with seas to 9 ft on
Mon night. 

S of 15N e of 120W: 

See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Estelle with strong to near tropical storm force conditions
shifting w across the n-central and the nw portion of the
discussion area through Tue. 

Fresh e winds will develop across, and just downstream of the
Gulf of Papagayo tonight...with strong drainage winds expected
on Sun night with seas then building to about 7 ft.  

W of 120W:

See special features above for information on Hurricane Darby
that will pass through the central waters through mid week, and
tropical cyclone Estelle that will begin to affect the e-central
waters late Sun night, and shift w across the central waters
late in the upcoming week.  

$$
Nelson