000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160249
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Darby was centered near 17.3N 122.1W at 0300 UTC
moving west-northwest or 295 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure 972 mb. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60
nm nw and 90 nm se semicircles, surrounded by scattered moderate
isolated strong convection elsewhere within 150 nm of the
center. Hurricane Darby is expected to slowly weaken over the
next few days but maintain hurricane intensity. See latest NHC
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated to Darby.

Tropical Storm Estelle was centered near 15.2N 108.3W at 0300
UTC moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. The maximum
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted within 210 nm northwest and 90 nm
southeast semicircles. Estelle is expected to continue
strengthening over the next few days, and reach hurricane
strength by early Sunday. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more
details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated with
Tropical Storm Estelle. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N95W to 11N101W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150-180 nm either
side of the axis east of 101W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

A ridge extends from a 1037 mb high pressure well north of the
area near 44N142W to the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
troughing over the peninsula will support moderate southerly
flow across the Gulf of California, occasionally reaching 20 kt
over the northern Gulf. Meanwhile, the contrast between high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and relatively lower pressure
in the tropical Eastern Pacific will result in occasional fresh
gap winds through into the Gulf of Tehuantepec the next couple
of nights. Looking ahead, by Sunday and Monday, wave heights of
8 to 12 ft on the northern periphery of what is now Tropical
Storm Estelle will impact the area from 15N to 25N and east of
the Baja California peninsula to include the Revillagigedo
Islands.

South of 15N and east of 120W: 

Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of
days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during overnight hours with the
added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Looking ahead winds
may reach 20 to 25 kt overnight Monday and Tuesday. 

West of 120W:

Fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft persist over the discussion
area north of 21N and west of 138W. These winds and seas in the
wake of what is now Tropical Depression Celia will move west of
the area early Saturday as Celia moves further away from the
area. For more information on Celia, please refer to the latest
CPHC advisory at AWIPS/WMO headers HFOTCMCP2/WTPA22 PHFO. 

$$
COBB