000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152122
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Darby centered near 16.8N 121.4W at 2100 UTC moving
west-northwest or 290 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
972 mb. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the
center surrounded by scattered moderate isolated strong
convection elsewhere within 360 nm southeast and 150 nm
northwest semicircles. Hurricane Darby is expected to slowly
weaken over the next few days but maintain hurricane intensity.
See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high
seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave
forecasts associated to Darby.

Tropical Depression Six-E was centered near 14.8N 107.2W at 2100
UTC moving west-northwest or 295 degrees at 8 kt. The maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted within 240 nm northeast and 180 nm
southwest semicircles. T.D. Six-E is expected to form into a
tropical storm late today, and reach hurricane strength by late
Saturday. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Also
see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more
details on the wave forecasts associated with T.D. Six-E.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 08N95W to 11N101W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150-180 nm either
side of the axis east of 101W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

A ridge extends from a 1038 mb high pressure well north of the
area near 44N142W to the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
troughing over the peninsula will support moderate southerly
flow across the Gulf of California, occasionally reaching 20 kt
over the northern Gulf. Meanwhile, the contrast between high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and relatively lower pressure
in the tropical Eastern Pacific will result in occasional fresh
gap winds through into the Gulf of Tehuantepec the next couple
of nights. Looking ahead, by Sunday and Monday, wave heights of
8 to 12 ft on the northern periphery of what is now T.D. Six-E
will impact the area from 15N to 25N and east of the Baja
California peninsula to include the Revillagigedo Islands.

South of 15N and east of 120W: 

Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of
days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during overnight hours with the
added component of nocturnal drainage flow.

West of 120W:

Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft persist over the
discussion area north of 21N and west of 138W. These winds and
seas in the wake of Tropical Storm Celia will move west of the
area by early Saturday as Celia moves further away from the area.
For more information on Celia, please refer to the latest CPHC
advisory at AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMCP2/WTPA22 PHFO. 

$$
COBB