000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151550
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1550 UTC Fri Jul 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Darby centered near 16.5N 120.5W at 1500 UTC moving
west-northwest or 285 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt
with gusts to 105 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 975 mb.
Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center
surrounded by scattered moderate isolated strong convection
elsewhere within 360 nm southeast and 150 nm northwest semicircles.
Hurricane Darby is expected to stay at its current intensity
into tonight, then begin to weaken. See latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more
details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
for more details on the wave forecasts associated to Darby.

Tropical Depression Six-E has formed near 14.0N 106.3W at 1500 UTC
moving west-northwest or 290 degrees at 7 kt. The maximum sustained
winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted within 240 nm northeast and 180 nm southwest semicircles.
T.D. Six-E is expected to form into a tropical storm late today,
and reach hurricane strength by late Saturday. Refer to the
latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas
forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave
forecasts associated with T.D. Six-E.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 08N95W to 10N100W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm south of the
axis east of 80W and between 95W and 102W. Scattered moderate
convection is also observed within 90 nm north of the axis between
82W and 87W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

A ridge reaches from 1037 mb high pressure well north of the area
near 44N140W to the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. The pressure gradient between this ridge and troughing
over the peninsula will support moderate southerly flow across the
Gulf of California, occasionally reaching 20 kt over the northern
Gulf. Meanwhile, the contrast between high pressure over the Gulf
of Mexico and relatively lower pressure in the tropical Eastern
Pacific will result in occasional fresh gap winds through into the
Gulf of Tehuantepec the next couple of nights. Looking ahead, by
Sunday and Monday, wave heights of 8 to 12 ft on the northern
periphery of what is now T.D. Six-E will impact the area from 15N
to 25N and east of the Baja California peninsula to include the
Revillagigedo Islands.

South of 15N and east of 120W: 

Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of
days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during overnight hours with the
added component of nocturnal drainage flow.

West of 120W:

Strong winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft persist over the discussion
area north of 18N and west of 137W. This is left over in the wake
of Tropical Storm Celia that moved west of 140W and the discussion
area this morning. For more information on Celia, please refer to
the latest CPHC advisory at AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMCP2/WTPA22
PHFO. This area of winds and seas will shift west of 140W tonight,
ahead of the approaching Hurricane Darby which will support a new
round of high seas across the region through early next week.

$$
Christensen