000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150952
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1405 UTC Fri Jul 15 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Darby centered near 16.1N 120.0W at 0900 UTC moving w
or 280 deg at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with
gusts to 100 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 982 mb.
Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center 
surrounded by scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
elsewhere within 150 NM e and within 75 nm w semicircles.
Hurricane Darby is expected to reach peak intensity of 85 kt
with gusts to 105 kt today, then begin to weaken. See latest
NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated to Darby.

Tropical Storm Celia centered near 22.0N 140.2W at 0900 UTC
moving w-nw or 285 deg at 11 kt. The maximum sustained winds are
40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Currently scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed well ne of the center within 45 nm
of 23N139W. Celia is expected to lose convection today with gale
force winds continuing into the early night hours as the system
moves further w of the area. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more
details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated to Celia.

A tropical low is analyzed near 14N106W with an estimated
pressure 1008 MB. Currently scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted to the sw of the center within 30 nm either
side of a line from 12.5N105.5W to 13.5N107W...and well ne of
the center to the ne of a line from 14N104W to 16N108W.
Environmental conditions will be favorable for tropical
cyclogenesis over the next couple of days. See latest NHC
tropical weather outlook for the eastern Pacific under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N96W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the Pacific
coast of Colombia to the n of 03N e of 79W. Similar convection
is observed along the coast of Costa Rica within 60 nm of
09.5N85W and near the coast of El Salvador within 120 nm of
12N132.5W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted
within 60 nm either side of a line from 04N85W to
09N97W...within 120 nm either side of a line from 09N105W to
12N114W to 08N125W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

See special features section above for details on Hurricane
Darby which will affect the far sw portion of this area through
early Sat. The tropical storm conditions and greater will shift
w of 120W this morning, while combined seas of 8 ft or greater
will shift w of 120w early Sat.

A surface ridge extending from 25N120W to 17N104W will shift
slightly n today as a tropical low pressure to the s of 15N
strengthens with strong e-se winds spreading across 15N between
105-110W tonight. The low center will move nw and enter the area
near 15N112W late Sat with minimal gale winds developing ne of
the low near 16.5N110W on Sat night. The low will continue
westward across the sw portion through Tue night, will high
probability of tropical cyclone formation.
      
A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the
Baja California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California
for the next several days supporting light to gentle 
southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters.

S of 15N e of 120W: 

Strong southerly winds over the far nw portion of this area in
association with Hurricane Darby will shift w of 120W today. See
special features above for information on a tropical low
expected to strengthen over the n-central portion over the next
couple of days.

W of 120W:

See special features above for information on Tropical Storm
Celia over the nw portion that is expected to shift w of the
area early tonight, and Hurricane Darby over the east-central
portion that is forecast to move northwestward across the central
waters through Wed. The tropical low currently near 14N105W
should move into the central waters on Mon night.

$$
Nelson