000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142140
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Darby centered near 15.9N 118.1W at 2100 UTC moving
west or 280 deg at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 985 mb.
Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the north
and 120 nm in the south semicircles. Hurricane Darby is expected
to reach peak intensity over the next 24 to 36 hours before slow
weakening takes place. See latest NHC forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also
see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more
details on the wave forecasts associated to Darby.

Tropical Storm Celia centered near 21.4N 138.0W at 2100 UTC
moving west-northwest or 295 deg at 12 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure 1000 mb. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
in the northeast semicircle. Celia is expected to continue to
weaken as the system shifts west of the area on Friday. The
large area of strong winds and high seas currently covering the
area within 270 nm north and 150 nm south of the storm will
diminish through Friday as well. See latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more
details. Also see latest high seas forecast MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts associated to Celia.

An area of low pressure 1009 MB has developed near 13N104W in
the area where the axis of a tropical wave was noted earlier.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N
between100W and 106W. Environmental conditions will be favorable
for tropical cyclogenesis over the next couple of days. See
latest NHC tropical weather outlook for the eastern Pacific
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N97W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 210 nm south of the
monsoon trough east of 95W.

...DISCUSSION...   

A ridge extends from 1035 mb high pressure centered near 43N139W
southeast to near 25N115W. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressure over Mexico will support moderate to
occasionally fresh southerly flow across the Gulf of California.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and Celia is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds well north of Celia and west of 130W.
Mainly moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N.

Both Celia and Darby are supporting large seas across our area of
discussion. As Celia weakens, the areal coverage of large seas
will slowly decrease. Darby will peak in intensity over the next
24 to 36 hours with an expanding area of large seas and high
winds over the next few days. Looking ahead, northerly swell
with wave heights to 9 ft are expected to push as far south as
25N west of 120W by late Saturday, mixing with seas generated on
the northern edge of Darby.

Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of
days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during overnight hours with the
added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Looking ahead, high
pressure developing over the northern Gulf of Mexico will support
enhanced Tehuantepec Gap winds by early next week.

$$
COBB