000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140246
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0225 UTC Thu Jul 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Darby centered near 15.6N 114.6W at 0300 UTC moving
west or 280 deg at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 989 mb.
Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center,
with scattered moderate convection elsewhere within 210 nm
southwest semicircle. Hurricane Darby will continue to intensify
as it moves west over the next several days. See latest NHC
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
for more details. Also see latest high seas forecast HSFEP2/FZPN03
for more details on the wave forecasts for these storms.

Tropical Storm Celia centered near 19.9N 134.7W at 0300 UTC
moving west-northwest or 295 deg at 11 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure 1000 mb. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm in
the north semicircle of the center. Celia is expected to continue
to weaken, while maintaining a large area of strong winds and high
seas, as it moves west-northwest. See latest NHC forecast advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.
Also see latest high seas forecast HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more details
on the wave forecasts for these storms.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is noted north of 07N along 100W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between
95W and 98W, and from 10N to 15N between 100W and 104W.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N90W to 11N105W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 180 nm south of
the monsoon trough axis between 80W and 95W.

...DISCUSSION...   

Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow will persist across
the Gulf of California between A ridge reaches from northwest of
the region to near the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly winds will
persist across the Gulf of California between the ridge and a
trough over Baja California Norte. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and Celia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds
north of 20N west of 125W. Mainly moderate winds prevail elsewhere
north of 20N.

Both Celia and Darby are supporting large seas across our area of
discussion. As Celia gradually weakens, the areal coverage of
large seas will slowly decrease. Darby will continue to intensify
with an expanding area of large seas and high winds over the next
few days. Looking ahead, northerly swell with wave heights to 9
ft are expected to push as far south as 25N west of 120W by late
Saturday, mixing with seas generated on the northern edge of
Darby.

Model guidance indicates this active period in tropical cyclone
activity the past week or so is likely to continue. A low is
expected to form several hundred miles south of southern Mexico
by this weekend and may eventually intensify in the same general
area as Blas, Celia and Darby have during the past several days. 

Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of
days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during overnight hours with the
added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Global models are
indicating that high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico
may support enhanced Tehuantepec Gap winds to 30 kt by early
next week. 

$$
Christensen