000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Celia centered near 19.1N 132.6W at 1500 UTC
moving northwest or 305 deg at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55
kt with gusts to 75 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 990
mb. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm eastern
semicircle of the center. Celia is expected to gradually weaken,
while maintaining a large area of strong winds and high seas, as
it moves west-northwest. See latest NHC forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Also
see latest high seas forecast HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more details on
the wave forecasts for these storms. 

Tropical Storm Darby centered near 15.2N 112.4W at 1500 UTC
moving west or 265 deg at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 996 mb.
Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm east and 75 nm
west semicircles, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere
within 240 nm west semicircle. Tropical Storm Darby will move
westward and is forecast to intensify to hurricane strength
today. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Also see latest high
seas forecast HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more details on the wave
forecasts for these storms. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is noted along 103W from 07N to
16.5N. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave
axis south of 14N. 

The axis of a tropical wave is along 95W from 07N to 16N.
Numerous strong and scattered moderate are north of 11N between
93W and 99W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 120 nm of
the wave axis.  

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N75W to 09N90W to 12N104W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to
09N east of 82W and from 06N to 12N between 88W and 92W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of
the monsoon trough west of 92W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

High pressure centered northwest of the area extends a ridge
southeast to near 20N122W. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and Tropical Storm Celia is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds north of 20N west of 125W. Mainly moderate winds
prevail elsewhere north of 20N. 

Both Tropical Storm Celia and Darby are supporting large seas
across our area of discussion. As Celia gradually weakens, the
areal coverage of large seas will slowly decrease. Darby will
continue to intensify with an expanding area of large seas and
high winds over the next few days. Please refer to the special
features section for details on these storms.

Model guidance indicates this active period in tropical cyclone
activity the past week or so is likely to continue. A low is
expected to form several hundred miles south of southern Mexico
by this weekend and may eventually intensify in the same general
area as Blas, Celia and Darby have during the past several days. 

Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of
days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during overnight hours with the
added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Global models are
indicating that high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico
may support enhanced Tehuantepec Gap winds to 30 kt by early
next week. 

$$
LATTO