000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130901
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 UTC Wed Jul 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Celia centered near 18.3N
131.2W at 0900 UTC moving west northwest or 300 deg at 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure 987 mb. Scattered moderate convection
was noted within 120 nm northeast and 90 nm southwest semicircles
of the center. Celia is expected to gradually weaken, while
maintaining a large area of strong winds and high seas, as it
moves northwest. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Darby centered near 15.3N 111.5W at 0900 UTC
moving west or 270 deg at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 998 mb.
Numerous strong convection is noted within 75 nm southwest and 60
nm northeast semicircles, with scattered moderate convection
elsewhere within 120 nm southwest and 75 nm northeast semicircles.
Tropical Storm Darby will move westward and is forecast to intensify
to hurricane strength today. See latest NHC forecast advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is noted near 98W north of 07N
reaching northward to southwest Mexico.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89w and north of 05N
extending northward to El Salvador.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 10N88W to 09N96W to
11N102W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted within 210 nm south the monsoon trough between 84W and
102W.

...DISCUSSION...   

High pressure of 1031 mb centered NW of the area near 40N157W
extends a ridge southeast to near 24N118W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and Tropical Storm Celia is supporting fresh
trade winds north of 20N west of 125W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is
supporting moderate northwest winds off the west coast of Baja
California.

Model guidance indicates this active period in tropical cyclone
activity the past week or so is likely to continue. A low is
expected to form several hundred miles south of southern Mexico
by this weekend and may eventually intensify in the same general
as Blas, Celia and TD 05E have during the past 5-10 days. 

Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of
days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during overnight hours with the
added component of nocturnal drainage flow.

$$
AL