000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130242
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Celia centered near 18.0N 130.3W at 0300 UTC moving
northwest or 305 deg at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 65 kt with
gusts to 80 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 986 mb.
Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm in the east
semicircle and 90 nm west semicircle of the center. Celia is
expected to gradually weaken, while maintaining a large area of
strong winds and high seas, as it moves northwest. See latest NHC
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Storm Darby centered near 15.4N 110.4W at 0300 UTC
moving west or 265 deg at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 1000 mb.
Darby continues to experience northeast shear, with the low level
center on the northeast edge of the convection. Numerous strong
convection is noted within 90 nm in the southwest quadrant of the
storm, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere within 120 nm
of the southwest semicircle. Tropical Storm Darby is expected to
move west and intensify to a hurricane tonight. See latest NHC
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is noted north of 06N between 95W and
96W reaching northward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec area. Earlier scattered
convection near the wave axis has dissipated.

Another tropical wave is moving west across Central America and
entering into the eastern Pacific off Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
This tropical wave as been fairly well defined moving across the
southwest Caribbean over the past couple of days. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted with the tropical
wave over land, but will likely enhance overnight convection off
the coast from Costa Rica to Guatemala. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N95W to 11.5N105W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
210 nm south the axis between 83W and 95W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Strong easterly winds and seas 8 to 9 ft on the periphery of Darby will
impact the Socorro Island and the area south of 20N tonight
through Wednesday, and bring 8 to 10 ft seas to Clarion Island
Wednesday through late Thu. Farther north, fresh southerly winds
are possible late tonight and early Wednesday and again early
Thursday in portions of Gulf of California between ridging to the
west and trough extending along the Baja California peninsula.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Aside from the winds and seas on the southern periphery of Darby,
the main issue will be fresh to occasionally strong gap winds
will follow the passage of a tropical wave moving across Central
America tonight, with seas reaching 8 ft farther downstream
through Wednesday, repeating again early Thursday.

West of 120W:

A pair of scatterometer passes indicated winds 20 kt or greater
converging into the outer edges of Celia within 360 nm on the
southeast and northwest quadrants. Mixed swell of 8 ft or greater
extends up to 480 nm of the center of Celia, covering the area
generally north of 12N and west of 125W. The Celia related swell
will exit west of the area completely by late Friday.

$$
Christensen