000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122135 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Celia centered near 17.4N 129.5W at 2100 UTC moving west- northwest or 300 deg at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 981 mb. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm in the east semicircle and 90 nm west semicircle of the center. Celia is expected to gradually weaken, while maintaining a large area of strong winds and high seas, as it moves west-northwest. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Darby centered near 15.7N 109.8W at 2100 UTC moving west or 265 deg at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 1002 mb. Darby has been experiencing northeast shear, but a low level center appears to be closer into the area of convection. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the southwest semicircle of the storm. Tropical Storm Darby is expected to move west and intensify to a hurricane Thursday morning. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is noted north of 07N between 93W and 95W into the Gulf of Tehuantepec area. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 93W and 95W. Another tropical wave is moving west across Central America and entering into the eastern Pacific off Costa Rica and Nicaragua. This tropical wave as been fairly well defined moving across the southwest Caribbean over the past couple of days. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted with the tropical wave over land, but will likely enhance overnight convection off the coast from Costa Rica to Guatemala. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 08N95W to 12N105W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south the axis between 82W and 88W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: Strong easterly winds and seas 8 to 9 ft on the periphery of Darbe will impact the Socorro Island and the area south of 20N tonight through Wednesday, and bring 8 to 10 ft seas to Clarion Island Wednesday through late Thu. Farther north, fresh southerly winds are possible late tonight and early Wednesday and again early Thursday in portions of Gulf of California between ridging to the west and trough extending along the Baja California peninsula. South of 15N and east of 120W: Aside from the winds and seas on the southern periphery of Darby, the main issue will be fresh to occasionally strong gap winds will follow the passage of a tropical wave moving across Central America tonight, with seas reaching 8 ft farther downstream through Wednesday, repeating again early Thursday. West of 120W: A pair of scatterometer passes indicated winds 20 kt or greater converging into the outer edges of Celia within 360 nm on the southeast and northwest quadrants. Mixed swell of 8 ft or greater extends up to 480 nm of the center of Celia, covering the area generally north of 12N and west of 125W. The Celia related swell will exit west of the area completely by late Friday. $$ Christensen