000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Celia centered near 16.8N 128.5W at 1500 UTC moving west-northwest or 310 deg at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 978 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection was noted within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere within 300 nm southeast and 150 nm northwest semicircles. Celia is expected to gradually weaken, while maintaining a large area of strong winds and high seas, as it moves west-northwest. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Darby centered near 16.0N 108.5W at 1500 UTC moving west or 270 deg at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 1006 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west semicircle. Tropical Storm Darby is expected to move west and intensify to a hurricane Thursday morning. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 06N northward into extreme southeastern Mexico. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection are from 09N to 16N between 90W and 98W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N74W to 10N85W to 09.5N100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 02N and east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 93W. ...DISCUSSION... A surface ridge axis extends from an area of high pressure northwest of our area of discussion to 27N122W TO 18N117W and supports mainly gentle to moderate winds across the northern waters from 22N to 30N. Moderate to fresh northwest winds just north of our area off the California Coast supports seas to 8 ft south to 29N between 119W and 122W. Winds have been diminishing over the past 24 hours which will result in a subsiding of seas below 8 ft over this portion of our forecast waters during the day today. Hurricane Celia and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Darby are along 15N/16N over the western and eastern portions of our forecast waters, respectively. Celia is supporting 12 ft seas up to 210 nm north and 180 south of the center with 8 ft seas propagating away from the center and extend anywhere from 06N to 27N between 120W and 137W. Tropical Storm Celia will support an expanding area of large seas as it moves westward the next few days. Refer to the special features section for more details on these systems. Elsewhere, the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to fresh to strong the next two mornings as a tropical wave and diurnal drainage flow helps to enhance winds over the area. Seas will build to 8 ft each of the two mornings. $$ LATTO