000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120901
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 UTC Tue Jul 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Celia centered near 16.2N 127.9W at 0900 UTC moving
west-northwest or 300 deg at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt
with gusts to 105 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 972 mb.
Numerous moderate to strong convection was noted within 90 nm of
center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
elsewhere within 180 nm southeast and 120 nm northwest
semicircles. Celia is expected to gradually weaken, while
maintaining a large area of strong winds and high seas, as it
moves west- northwest. See latest NHC forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Five-E centered near 15.8N 107.6W at 0900 UTC
moving west or 270 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm west
semicircle. TD 05-E is expected to move west- northwest and
intensify to tropical storm strength today and hurricane strength
early Thursday. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 05N northward
into Guatemala. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted north of 10N within 120 nm west of the axis. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 08.5N94W to
11N99W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of
03N and east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

High pressure of 1031 mb centered NW of the area near 40N157W
extends a ridge se to near 23N116W. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and Hurricane Celia is supporting fresh trade winds
north of 20N west of 126W. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate
northwest winds off the west coast of Baja California.

Model guidance indicates this active period in tropical cyclone
activity the past week or so is likely to continue. A low is
expected to form several hundred miles south of southern Mexico
by this weekend and may eventually intensify in the same general
as Blas, Celia and TD 05E have during the past 5-10 days. 

A tropical wave will move across Central America over the next 24
hours. This will help for enhanced gap winds into the Gulf of
Papagayo. Winds will reach near 25 kt during overnight hours over
Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning with the added
component of nocturnal drainage flow.

$$
AL