000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120245
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0405 UTC Tue Jul 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Celia centered near 15.5N 127.0W at 0300 UTC moving
west-northwest or 285 deg at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt
with gusts to 105 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 972 mb.
Numerous moderate to strong convection within 150 nm of center.
Celia is expected to gradually weaken, while maintaining a large
area of strong winds and high seas, as it moves west-northwest.
See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Five-E centered near 15.7N 106.9W at 0300
UTC moving west-northwest or 285 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure 1007 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within 120 nm north and 75 nm south of the center. TD 05-E is
expected to move west-northwest and intensify, becoming a
tropical storm overnight and a hurricane during the next 48
hours. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N96W to 14N103W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 150 nm
either side of the trough axis east of 98W.

...DISCUSSION...   

High pressure NW of the area extends and ridge across northern
waters roughly north of 23N west of 120W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and Hurricane Celia is supporting fresh trade
winds north of 22N west of 123W, as indicated from scatterometer
data during the past 6 hours. The remnant low of Blas has moved
west of 140W, and scatterometer data shows winds associated with
the low have diminished to less than 25 kt in the forecast area.
Associated seas will shift west of the area late tonight. Near
gale winds west of California are producing N-NW swell between
117W-128W, with max seas to 8-9 ft N of 29N between 118W-123W.

Model guidance indicates this active period in tropical cyclone
activity the past week or so is likely to continue. A low is
expected to form several hundred miles south of southern Mexico
by this weekend and may eventually intensify in the same general
as Blas, Celia and TD 05E have during the past 5-10 days. 

GFS model shows winds pulsing to 25 kt during overnight hours
over the Gulf of Papagayo Wed morning and again Thu morning with
an added component of nocturnal drainage flow.

$$
Mundell