000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Celia centered near 15.2N 126.2W at 2100 UTC moving west or 280 degrees at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 973 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate convection elsewhere within 150 nm of center. Celia is expected to remain close to its current intensity over the next 24 hours then gradually weaken, while maintaining a large area of strong winds and high seas, as it moves west to west-northwest. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Five-E centered near 15.3N 106.3W at 2100 UTC moving northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm north and 90 nm south of the center. TD 05-E is expected to move west-northwest and intensify, becoming a hurricane during the next 48-72 hours. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N96W to 14N103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 150 nm either side of the trough axis east of 98W. ...DISCUSSION... High pressure NW of the area extends and ridge across northern waters roughly north of 23N west of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Hurricane Celia is supporting fresh trade winds north of 22N west of 123W, as indicated from scatterometer data during the past 15 hours. The remnant low of Blas has moved west of 140W, and scatterometer data shows winds associated with the low have diminished to less than 25 kt in the forecast area. Associated seas will shift west of the area late tonight. Near gale winds west of California are producing N-NW swell between 117W-128W, with max seas to 8-9 ft N of 29N between 118W-123W. Model guidance indicates this active period in tropical cyclone activity the past week or so is likely to continue. A low is expected to form several hundred miles south of southern Mexico by this weekend and may eventually intensify in the same general as Blas, Celia and TD 05E have during the past 5-10 days. GFS model shows winds pulsing to 25 kt during overnight hours over the Gulf of Papagayo Wed morning and again Thu morning with an added component of nocturnal drainage flow. $$ Mundell